Stocks: price momentum turned back down again.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/26/13.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/26/13.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher on Monday and added to gains in the first 2 hours. Prices drifted downward mildly but were still up until the final hour when a sudden selling wave broke the day’s range to the downside and plunged the price indexes into the minus column by the close. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,656.78, down 0.40%) closed below the open, below the previous day’s close, and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. SPX whipsawed back below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.

Short-term daily price momentum based on the SPX late last week was starting to look like some further stock market recovery might possible –but with Monday’s Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks, bullish probabilities are diminished. Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), turned down on Monday and now appear to offer little encouragement.

For the medium term, SPX is nearly unchanged since its high last May, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum at best.

NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 27% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE turned back down again on Monday. The A-D Line fell below its lowest closes of the previous 7 weeks on 8/19/13. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line also turned down; it fell below its lowest closes of the previous 6 weeks on 8/21/13. Previously, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The Transportation Average whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/22/13, but the Industrial Average remained well below its 50-day SMA.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/26/13.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price also remains systematically bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price also remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/26/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support: 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.72% AMGN AMGEN
12.87% RSH RADIOSHACK
2.24% XBI Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.85% CHRW.O CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.37% IYH Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.48% LVLT.K LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
1.97% DBA Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.72% UIS UNISYS
1.22% FDX FEDEX
2.46% OMX OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.36% APC ANADARKO PETRO
2.68% ODP OFFICE DEPOT
0.20% VHT Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.72% WYNN Wynn Resorts L
0.31% XSD Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.27% TLH Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.41% ALTR ALTERA
2.08% HD HOME DEPOT
1.16% MWV MEADWESTVACO
5.49% BIG BIG LOTS
1.57% NFLX Netflix, NFLX
1.16% WYN Wyndham Worldwide
0.80% ECL ECOLAB
1.49% MON MONSANTO
0.87% VRSN VeriSign Inc
0.31% AES AES
0.20% VAW Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.27% BLK BlackRock Inc.
1.34% IGT INTL GAME TECH
0.73% IP INTL PAPER
0.11% DISH EchoStar Communications
0.32% SH Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.76% SNPS Synopsys Inc
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.12% PBJ Food & Beverage, PBJ
-3.26% CTB COOPER TIRE
-4.91% ADM ARCHER DANIELS
-2.61% EWI Italy Index, EWI
-1.17% XLP Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.66% IDU Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.56% EPP Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.76% EMN EASTMAN CHEM
-0.64% PEY Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.44% CLX CLOROX
-0.16% IYJ Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-4.26% IDX Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.59% IOO Global 100, IOO
-0.73% IYG Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.09% IYW Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.13% CPB CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.62% CAG CONAGRA FOODS
-0.99% CINF CINCINNATI FIN
-1.15% EWJ Japan Index, EWJ
-0.24% IYE Energy DJ, IYE
-0.99% JPM J P MORGAN CHASE
-1.08% AON AON
-0.77% VPU Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.88% GIS GENERAL MILLS
-0.72% CMA COMERICA
-0.60% VTV Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.40% TIF TIFFANY
-1.00% CMCSA COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-1.98% MKC MCCORMICK
-0.44% GD GENERAL DYNAMICS
-0.55% PNW PINNACLE WEST
-0.26% MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.22% KSS KOHLS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.24% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.97% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.34% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.65% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.56% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.50% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.48% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.41% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.35% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.32% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.31% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.25% South Korea Index, EWY
0.21% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.20% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.18% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.14% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.14% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.09% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.09% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.08% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.08% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.07% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.05% China 25 iS, FXI
0.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.05% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.04% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.02% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.02% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.01% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.02% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.04% Canada Index, EWC
-0.05% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.09% Water Resources, PHO
-0.09% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.09% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.09% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.10% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.10% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.15% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.17% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.19% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.19% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.21% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.21% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.21% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.22% Germany Index, EWG
-0.23% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.23% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.24% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.24% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.25% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.25% Energy Global, IXC
-0.25% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.25% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.27% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.30% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.33% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.33% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.36% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.37% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.38% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.38% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.39% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.42% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.44% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.44% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.47% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.47% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.48% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.48% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.48% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.48% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.49% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.49% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.50% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.50% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.56% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.56% Networking, IGN
-0.59% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.59% Austria Index, EWO
-0.59% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.59% Dividend International, PID
-0.59% Global 100, IOO
-0.60% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.61% France Index, EWQ
-0.61% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.62% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.63% Australia Index, EWA
-0.63% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.64% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.67% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.68% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.73% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.73% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.74% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.74% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.75% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.77% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.79% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.80% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.83% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.92% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.93% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.95% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.09% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.13% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.15% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.17% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.19% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.32% Spain Index, EWP
-1.54% Russia MV, RSX
-1.69% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.73% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.95% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.38% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.45% India PS, PIN
-2.61% Italy Index, EWI
-4.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.01, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1639.43, low of 8/21/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1557.06, 200-day SMA
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009