Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
On Wednesday , U.S. stock market price indexes recovered a fraction of Tuesday’s loss in the morning but surrendered much of the early gain in the afternoon, mainly in the final half hour. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,634.96, up 0.27%) closed above the open, slightly above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above the previous day’s close, but still below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
MACD(12,26,9), a popular short-term daily price momentum oscillator based on SPX, has been trending down all month long and currently appears to offer no encouragement for an upturn anytime soon.
For the medium term, SPX is below its highs of May, June, July, and August, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum at best.
NYSE total volume fell 14% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line turned upward, but only slightly, after falling below its lowest levels of the previous 7 weeks on Tuesday 8/27/13. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell also managed a small gain. Previously, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remained bearish again on Wednesday, that is, there were fewer New Highs than New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August highs for the price indexes, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. The action since then looks like a developing Secondary Reaction to the downside, however. On 8/27/13, both Averages fell below their lows of the previous 7 weeks, and the Transportation Average whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMAs again to confirm the Industrial Average, which has remained below its 50-day SMA every day since 8/15/13.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/26/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/27/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/27/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose further above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/28/13, again confirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend. Support 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/27/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support: 131.51, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/27/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.83% XSD Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.14% PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.65% IYE Energy DJ, IYE
2.29% IDX Indonesia MV, IDX
1.49% XBI Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.20% CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions
2.70% BBRY BlackBerry (BBRY)
2.53% CVX CHEVRONTEXACO
2.03% EOG EOG RESOURCES
2.89% GILD Gilead Sciences Inc
1.87% APC ANADARKO PETRO
2.59% XRX XEROX
3.10% RSH RADIOSHACK
2.33% XOM EXXON MOBIL
0.72% FPX IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.47% EWY South Korea Index, EWY
1.86% SLB SCHLUMBERGER
0.38% RFV Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.47% RPG Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.66% XLE Energy SPDR, XLE
2.82% HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD
0.31% PWV Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.31% MCD MCDONALDS
1.14% COP CONOCOPHILLIPS
0.61% RDC ROWAN COMPANIES
1.21% WY WEYERHAEUSER
0.34% IWO Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.04% AON AON
0.84% BCR C R BARD
0.35% IWB LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
3.65% MRO MARATHON OIL
0.48% PNW PINNACLE WEST
0.77% PFE PFIZER
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.74% VDC Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.25% EWG Germany Index, EWG
-1.44% MKC MCCORMICK
-0.83% NWL NEWELL RUBBER
-1.54% BF.B BROWN FORMAN STK B
-0.83% XL XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.16% HSY HERSHEY FOODS
-1.53% LXK LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.42% R RYDER SYSTEM
-1.27% PPG PPG INDUSTRIES
-0.83% YUM YUM BRANDS
-1.17% SJM J. M. Smucker
-0.75% XLP Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.89% EPI India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.18% CS Credit Suisse Group, CS
-1.44% PG PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.58% ACE ACE
-0.39% IYK Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.38% PM Philip Morris, PM
-0.76% ABT ABBOTT LABS
-1.01% DPS Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.51% BWX Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.78% CCE COCA COLA ENTER
-0.83% EMN EASTMAN CHEM
-1.08% COST COSTCO WHOLESAL
-1.25% CAG CONAGRA FOODS
-0.69% AMAT APPLIED MATERIAL
-0.68% SLV Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.71% CVS CVS
-0.32% IBM IBM
-0.80% CPB CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.11% ILF Latin Am 40, ILF
-4.42% TIF TIFFANY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.29% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.88% Energy Global, IXC
1.83% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.66% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.66% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.65% Energy DJ, IYE
1.49% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.47% South Korea Index, EWY
1.30% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.30% Italy Index, EWI
1.12% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.11% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.78% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.73% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.70% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.55% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.54% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.54% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.50% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.43% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.39% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.38% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.38% Networking, IGN
0.37% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.37% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.36% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.36% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.36% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.35% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.35% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.34% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.34% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.33% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.33% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.33% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.32% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.32% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.31% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.31% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.30% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.30% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.29% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.29% Global 100, IOO
0.28% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.28% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.27% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.27% Japan Index, EWJ
0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.24% Singapore Index, EWS
0.24% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.24% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.23% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.21% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.20% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.20% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.19% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.19% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.18% Canada Index, EWC
0.18% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% Dividend International, PID
0.18% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.18% Water Resources, PHO
0.15% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.14% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.14% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.14% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.11% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.10% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.09% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.08% India PS, PIN
0.08% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.08% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.06% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.06% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.06% Austria Index, EWO
0.04% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.02% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.02% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Spain Index, EWP
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.11% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.12% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.12% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.14% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.17% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.18% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.19% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.19% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.19% Russia MV, RSX
-0.21% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.22% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.22% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.22% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.24% France Index, EWQ
-0.24% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.26% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.31% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.34% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.34% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.34% Australia Index, EWA
-0.35% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.37% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.39% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.41% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.48% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.50% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.53% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.61% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.62% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.65% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.75% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.89% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.98% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.25% Germany Index, EWG
-1.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.73% Mexico Index, EWW
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1659.50, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1639.43, low of 8/21/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1559.60, 200-day SMA
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
