The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/29/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
On Thursday, U.S. stock market price indexes opened moderately lower but quickly reversed to the upside. Prices peaked by 11:30 a.m. then gradually surrendered most of the morning gain by the close. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,638.17, up 0.20%) closed above the open, slightly below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above the previous day’s close, but still below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
MACD(12,26,9), a popular short-term daily price momentum oscillator based on SPX, has been trending down all month long and currently appears to offer no encouragement for an upturn anytime soon.
For the medium term, SPX is below its highs of May, June, July, and August, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum at best.
NYSE total volume fell 10% to a level 23% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line rose moderately, after falling below its lowest levels of the previous 7 weeks on Tuesday 8/27/13. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell also managed a moderate gain. Both Volume and Breadth lines remain below their 50-day SMAs. Previously, both failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remained bearish again on Thursday, that is, there were fewer New Highs than New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August highs for the price indexes, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. The action since then looks like a developing Secondary Reaction to the downside, however. On 8/27/13, both Averages fell below their lows of the previous 7 weeks, and the Transportation Average whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMAs again to confirm the Industrial Average, which has remained below its 50-day SMA every day since 8/15/13.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/29/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/29/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/27/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose further above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/28/13, again confirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend. Support 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/27/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support: 131.51, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/27/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.35% GRMN GARMIN LTD
2.71% VZ VERIZON COMMS
3.22% LBTYA Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.59% ALTR ALTERA
3.06% AN AUTONATION
0.93% IYZ Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.00% WOR WORTHINGTON INDS
1.23% IWC Microcap Russell, IWC
1.04% SOXX Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.30% ITT ITT INDS
0.80% RFG Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
3.00% F FORD MOTOR
1.53% IPG INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.24% TXT TEXTRON
1.26% UNH UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.92% WFM.O Whole Foods Market Inc
2.86% MAS MASCO
1.55% KSU Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.49% IP INTL PAPER
0.57% EWS Singapore Index, EWS
0.29% IYT Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.06% BEN FRANKLIN RSC
0.36% SPHQ.K S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
0.70% YHOO YAHOO
0.78% PLL PALL
2.08% EWY South Korea Index, EWY
0.99% CIEN.O CIENA
0.20% PRF Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.48% XLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.35% HOG HARLEY DAVIDSON
0.74% WLP WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.27% SCZ Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.70% QQQ.O QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.09% CPB CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.51% AA ALCOA
-1.11% IXC Energy Global, IXC
-1.00% VDE Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.66% DLX DELUXE
-0.52% CMS CMS ENERGY
-0.24% EWQ France Index, EWQ
-0.20% SIAL SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.39% EWW Mexico Index, EWW
-1.43% QID Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.44% VMC VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.55% PNW PINNACLE WEST
-0.55% EWK Belgium Index, EWK
-0.17% EFG Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.98% MZZ Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.91% L LOEWS
-0.97% DB Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.20% EFV Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.29% XEL XCEL ENERGY
-0.29% VGK European VIPERs, VGK
-0.06% IWD Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.22% DELL DELL
-0.13% LLTC LINEAR TECH
-0.06% FRN Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.06% IOO Global 100, IOO
-0.08% EFX EQUIFAX
-0.20% DXD Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.10% MOLX MOLEX
-0.02% EZA South Africa Index, EZA
-0.05% PEP PEPSICO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.52% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.08% South Korea Index, EWY
1.80% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.62% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.60% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.50% India PS, PIN
1.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.31% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.30% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.23% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.19% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.19% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.15% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.12% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.10% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.09% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.04% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.00% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.93% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.93% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.90% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.80% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.79% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.76% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.76% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.70% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.70% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.62% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.61% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.59% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.57% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.57% Singapore Index, EWS
0.54% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.54% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.52% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.48% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.48% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.47% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.47% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.43% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.42% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.41% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.41% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.39% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.37% Networking, IGN
0.36% Water Resources, PHO
0.35% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.34% China 25 iS, FXI
0.33% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.33% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.32% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.30% Dividend International, PID
0.29% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.29% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.28% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.28% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.28% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.27% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.27% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.26% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.25% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.24% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.22% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.22% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.20% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.20% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.19% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.18% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.16% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.15% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.15% Canada Index, EWC
0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.09% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.03% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.02% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.04% Russia MV, RSX
-0.05% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.06% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.06% Global 100, IOO
-0.06% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.06% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.09% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.09% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.10% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.13% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.14% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.14% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.17% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.17% Australia Index, EWA
-0.17% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.20% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.24% France Index, EWQ
-0.26% Spain Index, EWP
-0.26% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.29% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.38% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.38% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.39% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.40% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.44% Austria Index, EWO
-0.46% Germany Index, EWG
-0.47% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.47% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.55% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.59% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.60% Italy Index, EWI
-0.61% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.69% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.77% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.94% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.10% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.11% Energy Global, IXC
-1.28% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.84% Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1659.69, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.41, high of 8/29/2013
1639.43, low of 8/21/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.89, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
