Technology (XLK) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 11/15/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,798.18, up 0.42%) absolute price opened moderately higher on Friday, turned choppy, then advanced in the afternoon. SPX closed near its highest levels of the day and at a new all-time high.
NYSE total volume fell 7% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both rose again on Friday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remain below their recent highs, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P rose modestly on Friday. Still, they remain stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of the Fed’s highly-accommodative monetary policy. Although that may not last, new highs for the stock market price indexes mean that the bullish case still rules at this time.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/15/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.72, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 19.69, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.69% , A , AGILENT TECH
4.91% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
3.87% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
4.36% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
4.39% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
3.16% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
4.25% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
1.49% , WAT , WATERS
3.91% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.71% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
3.35% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.20% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
2.90% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
2.05% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.91% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.60% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.04% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
2.38% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.64% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
1.20% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.26% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.48% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.75% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.17% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.44% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.41% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.11% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
1.72% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.52% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.43% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.41% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.52% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.40% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.32% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-8.68% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.33% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.46% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-3.50% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-3.43% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-1.26% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.66% , NE , NOBLE
-1.52% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.83% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.14% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.61% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.23% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.17% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.41% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.77% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.48% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-0.72% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.66% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.58% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.36% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.55% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.30% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.24% , PLL , PALL
-0.49% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.11% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.52% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-0.72% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.44% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.22% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.16% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-0.21% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.24% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.39% , China 25 iS, FXI
2.64% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.91% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.84% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.76% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.76% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.76% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.75% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.67% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.53% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.41% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.40% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.36% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.34% , Australia Index, EWA
1.33% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.25% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.20% , India PS, PIN
1.20% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.18% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.07% , Energy Global, IXC
1.04% , Networking, IGN
0.98% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.92% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.91% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.88% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.87% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.85% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.81% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.78% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.77% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.76% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.73% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.73% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.72% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.71% , Water Resources, PHO
0.71% , Germany Index, EWG
0.70% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.69% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.66% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.64% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.64% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.61% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.60% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.58% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.58% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.57% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.56% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.55% , Global 100, IOO
0.55% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.55% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.54% , France Index, EWQ
0.54% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.53% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.53% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.53% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.52% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.51% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.51% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.51% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.50% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.49% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.48% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.48% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.48% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.45% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.44% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.44% , Canada Index, EWC
0.44% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.44% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.44% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.43% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.43% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.43% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.42% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.42% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.42% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.42% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.42% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.41% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.40% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.39% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.39% , Dividend International, PID
0.39% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.39% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.38% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.38% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.38% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.38% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.37% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.37% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.36% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.36% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.34% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.34% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.33% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.32% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.30% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.29% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.27% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.26% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.26% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.25% , Austria Index, EWO
0.25% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.24% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.23% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.22% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.22% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.21% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.19% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.18% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.17% , Russia MV, RSX
0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.13% , Italy Index, EWI
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.03% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Spain Index, EWP
0.00% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.13% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.15% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.25% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.47% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.50% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1723.84, 50-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1637.46, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
