Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/18/13 when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 11/18/13, thereby reconfirming a long-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,791.53, down 0.37%) absolute price opened higher on Monday but turned down after the first 10 minutes. The decline accelerated in the final 90 minutes. SPX closed below the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
Other major price indexes finished mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI: 15,976.02) price rose 0.09%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 3,949.07) price fell 0.93%.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both turned down on Monday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remain below their recent highs, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD Histogram based on the S&P 500 turned down on Monday, thereby confirming a loss of upside momentum. Both have remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of the Fed’s highly-accommodative monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/15/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.72, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.35% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.68% , BA , BOEING
2.97% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.36% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.80% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.39% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.22% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.37% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.06% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.59% , DLX , DELUXE
0.45% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
1.28% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.11% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.46% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
0.56% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.32% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.25% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.27% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.78% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.60% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.96% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.77% , C , CITIGROUP
1.59% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.82% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.33% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.02% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.50% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.41% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.66% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
0.18% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.09% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
0.14% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.72% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.78% , IGV , Software, IGV
-5.61% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-3.84% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.19% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-2.46% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.14% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.06% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-4.29% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-3.88% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-2.89% , KR , KROGER
-1.97% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.94% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.57% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.62% , TJX , TJX
-1.99% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.28% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.17% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-0.57% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.22% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.70% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-1.44% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.32% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.69% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.67% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.69% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-1.08% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-1.20% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.61% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-0.98% , QQQ.O , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.75% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.80% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.60% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.59% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.77% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.77% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.40% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.32% , Italy Index, EWI
1.28% , India PS, PIN
1.06% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.99% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.99% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.94% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.90% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.82% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.66% , Russia MV, RSX
0.60% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.50% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.45% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.44% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.36% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.35% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.35% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.33% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.33% , Spain Index, EWP
0.27% , Germany Index, EWG
0.27% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.27% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.25% , France Index, EWQ
0.24% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.22% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.21% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.19% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.18% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.17% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.17% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.15% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.10% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.09% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.08% , Global 100, IOO
0.07% , Canada Index, EWC
0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.00% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.04% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.07% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.10% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.11% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.11% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.13% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.16% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.16% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.19% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.21% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.22% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.23% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.23% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.27% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.28% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.29% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.31% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.34% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.34% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.35% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.38% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.39% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.40% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.43% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.44% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.45% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.46% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.47% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.48% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.48% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.49% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.51% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.51% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.53% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.53% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.54% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.55% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.57% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.57% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.61% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.62% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.63% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.65% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.66% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.66% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.67% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.67% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.69% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.69% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.70% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.70% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.73% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.74% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.75% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.76% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.77% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.77% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.78% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.78% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.79% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.80% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.86% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.87% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.87% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.89% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.89% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.90% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.91% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.95% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.96% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.98% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.99% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.00% , Networking, IGN
-1.00% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.14% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.68% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.80% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.89% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.46% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1802.33, high of 11/18/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1726.24, 50-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1638.94, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
