The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 11/19/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/19/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,787.87, down 0.20%) absolute price opened modestly lower, tried to rally a few times, but closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closes of the previous 3 trading days.
Other major price indexes also finished lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI: 15,967.03) price fell 0.06%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 3,931.55) price fell 0.44%.
NYSE total volume rose 2% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both declined again on Tuesday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remained below their 2013 highs in November, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs on 11/15/13.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD Histogram based on the S&P 500 both declined again on Tuesday, thereby confirming a loss of upside momentum. Both have remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of the Fed’s highly-accommodative monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/15/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.72, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.98% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
2.03% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.77% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
1.25% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.10% , MAS , MASCO
4.90% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.44% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.89% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.11% , APA , APACHE
0.45% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
1.88% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.37% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.11% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.72% , NE , NOBLE
0.57% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
0.47% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.09% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
0.42% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.68% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
0.37% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.47% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.07% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.33% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.61% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.44% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.06% , IR , INGER RAND
0.10% , MOLX , MOLEX
0.74% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.02% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.23% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.13% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.97% , BBY , BEST BUY
-6.24% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-4.34% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.54% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.51% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.85% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.75% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-2.29% , ZION , ZIONS
-2.52% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.98% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-2.54% , WAG , WALGREEN
-3.82% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-2.36% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.34% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.88% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.67% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-1.55% , XLNX , XILINX
-3.49% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.96% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.04% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.03% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.29% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.27% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.74% , AES , AES
-0.59% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.05% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.10% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.94% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.57% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.81% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.62% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.35% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.80% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.61% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.30% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.30% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.27% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.25% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.23% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.20% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.19% , Energy Global, IXC
0.18% , Germany Index, EWG
0.17% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.15% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.15% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.14% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.11% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.03% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.01% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.03% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.11% , Global 100, IOO
-0.11% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.12% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.13% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.13% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.14% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.18% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.19% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.19% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.20% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.20% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.21% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.22% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.24% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.26% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.26% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.26% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.26% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.26% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.27% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.28% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.28% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.28% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.29% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.29% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.29% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.30% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.30% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.30% , Networking, IGN
-0.30% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.31% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.31% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.32% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.34% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.35% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.35% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.37% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.38% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.39% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.39% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.40% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.42% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.43% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.43% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.47% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.47% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.50% , Dividend International, PID
-0.50% , France Index, EWQ
-0.52% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.54% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.54% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.57% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.57% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.60% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.62% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.62% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.62% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.62% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.63% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.63% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.64% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.68% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.68% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.70% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.71% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.71% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.71% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.73% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.73% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.74% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.75% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.76% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.76% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.76% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.76% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.78% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.79% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.80% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.85% , India PS, PIN
-0.85% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.90% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.91% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.92% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.95% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.95% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.05% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.07% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.15% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.18% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.25% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.51% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.81% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.82% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.83% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.88% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.91% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.11% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.23% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.60% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1802.33, high of 11/18/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1728.32, 50-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1640.33, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
