Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/20/13, thereby reconfirming a major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,781.37, down 0.36%) absolute price opened higher and tried to add to gains in the first 51 minutes before fizzling out and stagnating for several hours. Stock prices collapsed at 2:00 pm ET on news that Federal Reserve officials considered reducing the size of the asset-purchase program. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closes of the previous 5 trading days.
Other major price indexes also finished lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI: 15,900.82) price fell 0.41%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 3,921.27) price fell 0.26%.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both declined again on Wednesday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remained below their 2013 highs in November, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs on 11/15/13.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD Histogram based on the S&P 500 both declined again on Wednesday, thereby confirming a loss of upside momentum. Both have remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of the Fed’s highly-accommodative monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/15/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.38% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.28% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4.42% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
3.31% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
2.86% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.07% , DE , DEERE & CO
1.09% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.92% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.99% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
6.61% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.04% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.53% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.28% , MAS , MASCO
0.37% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.60% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
0.62% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
0.42% , KBH , KB HOME
0.31% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.36% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.80% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.61% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.56% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.14% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.58% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.52% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.50% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.69% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.04% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.08% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
0.21% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.46% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.31% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.47% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.54% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-3.01% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-3.34% , EBAY , EBAY
-6.17% , LOW , LOWES
-2.30% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.40% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.37% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.18% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.35% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-3.31% , BA , BOEING
-0.81% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.29% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-3.51% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.72% , CR , CRANE
-1.87% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-2.03% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.49% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.98% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-1.70% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.39% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-2.89% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.56% , ED , CON ED
-1.44% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.77% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.99% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-1.01% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.78% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.93% , COH , COACH
-1.37% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-1.98% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.55% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.51% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.52% , PLL , PALL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.93% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.74% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.31% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.30% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.14% , Canada Index, EWC
0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.04% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.03% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.02% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.03% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.05% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.07% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.10% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.10% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.10% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.11% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.13% , Networking, IGN
-0.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.15% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.17% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.18% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.19% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.20% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.22% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.22% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.22% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.22% , Dividend International, PID
-0.23% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.23% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.23% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.24% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.24% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.24% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.24% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.24% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.25% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.28% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.28% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.29% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.29% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.29% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.30% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.31% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.31% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.31% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.31% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.31% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.31% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.32% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.32% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.33% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.33% , Global 100, IOO
-0.33% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.33% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.34% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.34% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.35% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.35% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.36% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.36% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.38% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.42% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.42% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.43% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.43% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.44% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.44% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.48% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.49% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.49% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.51% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.53% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.53% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.55% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.57% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.59% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.62% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.62% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.66% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.66% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.70% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.72% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.74% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.77% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.77% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.78% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.78% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.81% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.81% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.84% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.85% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.86% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.88% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.92% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.93% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.94% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.99% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.99% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.00% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.05% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.05% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.06% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.07% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.08% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.09% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.10% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.12% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.15% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.17% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.18% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.19% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.20% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.22% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.22% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.25% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.26% , France Index, EWQ
-1.27% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.37% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.39% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.44% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.45% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.62% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.63% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.70% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.78% , India PS, PIN
-1.98% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.10% , Spain Index, EWP
-2.30% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.40% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.64% , Indonesia MV, IDX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1802.33, high of 11/18/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1730.16, 50-day SMA
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1641.67, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
