Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/21/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 11/21/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/21/13, thereby reconfirming a major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,795.85, up 0.81%) absolute price opened higher on Thursday and added further to gains during the session. The S&P 500 closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closes of the previous 3 trading days.
Other major price indexes also finished higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI: 16,009.99) price rose 0.69%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 3,969.15) price rose 1.22%.
NYSE total volume rose 5% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both turned upward on Thursday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remained below their 2013 highs in November, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs on 11/15/13.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 both turned upward on Thursday. Both have remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of the Fed’s highly-accommodative monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/15/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/19/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/21/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.01% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.32% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
4.42% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
3.25% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.76% , ACE , ACE
8.16% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
6.33% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.37% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
2.74% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
3.30% , IP , INTL PAPER
4.06% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.08% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
1.08% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.88% , DLX , DELUXE
2.73% , INTC , INTEL
1.57% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.89% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.81% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
2.02% , DOV , DOVER
1.91% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.39% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
3.60% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.25% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
3.31% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.29% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
4.22% , SEE , SEALED AIR
2.23% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.98% , K , KELLOGG
3.97% , KBH , KB HOME
1.21% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.44% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.64% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
2.81% , ADSK , AUTODESK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.48% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-3.46% , TGT , TARGET
-2.86% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.08% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.72% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-3.02% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-3.50% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.25% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-1.24% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.30% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-2.87% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.23% , ED , CON ED
-0.44% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-2.01% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.11% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.33% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.16% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.32% , NI , NISOURCE
-1.13% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.08% , NE , NOBLE
-0.08% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.01% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.21% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.17% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.13% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.99% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.92% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.86% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.82% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.81% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.80% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.76% , Spain Index, EWP
1.74% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.67% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.61% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.58% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.57% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.56% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.52% , Austria Index, EWO
1.52% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.46% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.44% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.42% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.40% , Italy Index, EWI
1.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.37% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.32% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.31% , Networking, IGN
1.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.25% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.23% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.18% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.16% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.14% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.09% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.08% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.07% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.03% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.03% , Russia MV, RSX
1.02% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.01% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.01% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.99% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.97% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.96% , Water Resources, PHO
0.96% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.95% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.95% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.95% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.94% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.90% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.90% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.88% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.88% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.88% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.87% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.87% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.86% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.85% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.84% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.84% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.83% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.82% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.82% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.81% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.81% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.81% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.80% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.78% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.77% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.77% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.76% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.75% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.75% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.75% , Germany Index, EWG
0.72% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.69% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.69% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.67% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.66% , France Index, EWQ
0.66% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.66% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.65% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.65% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.63% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.60% , Energy Global, IXC
0.56% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.55% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.55% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.54% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.53% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.53% , Global 100, IOO
0.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.51% , Dividend International, PID
0.50% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.49% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.48% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.41% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.41% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.41% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.38% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.38% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.36% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.34% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.31% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.30% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.30% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.29% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.27% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.24% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.23% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.19% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.18% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.17% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.10% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.09% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.10% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.15% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.16% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.24% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.26% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.32% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.34% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.58% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.60% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.63% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.69% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.80% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.22% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.29% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.51% , India PS, PIN
-1.65% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1802.33, high of 11/18/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1732.41, 50-day SMA
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1643.11, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
