Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/13/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 12/13/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,775.32, down 0.01%) absolute price opened slightly higher on Friday but could not sustain any of several attempts to advance. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below its closing price lows of the previous 21 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 10% to a level 14% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line turned upward slightly on Friday; it fell below 5-weeks’ lows on Thursday, after crossing below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE turned upward moderately on Friday; it fell below 8-weeks’ lows on Thursday and crossed below its 50-day SMA on Tuesday 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
Both Cumulative Daily Lines have remained below their highs of September-October, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs in late November.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 fell below their lows of the previous 8 weeks last week. These oscillators have been trending lower after stalling out below their October highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in November. Previously, both remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below first half 2013 highs as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in July, August, September, and October.
Momentum divergences, breadth divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory last reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/27/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 14 months on 12/10/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/13/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 12/13/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/2/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 14 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/5/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The price 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 12/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/6/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.28, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.78% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
6.18% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
3.57% , IP , INTL PAPER
5.96% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
4.90% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.84% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
3.16% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
3.02% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.86% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
1.60% , IGV , Software, IGV
2.20% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
2.88% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
0.60% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
1.39% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.00% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.12% , CVG , CONVERGYS
1.22% , F , FORD MOTOR
0.45% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.08% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.92% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.95% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.59% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.06% , CSX , CSX
1.14% , FDX , FEDEX
2.00% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.70% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.78% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.13% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
0.77% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.87% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
0.21% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , CR , CRANE
0.37% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.42% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.23% , AES , AES
-0.27% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-4.73% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.64% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.61% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-0.47% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.49% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-1.05% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.28% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.94% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.38% , PLL , PALL
-1.34% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.86% , GOOG , Google
-1.09% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.05% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-0.40% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.96% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.50% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-0.39% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.68% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.37% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.06% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.22% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.38% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-0.18% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.19% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.23% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-0.33% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-0.33% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.62% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.19% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.70% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.43% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.15% , Australia Index, EWA
1.13% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.97% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.92% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.87% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.84% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.84% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.77% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.74% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.72% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.71% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.65% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.61% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.59% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.55% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.49% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.48% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.45% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.44% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.44% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.40% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.40% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.40% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.38% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.38% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.36% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.36% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.35% , Canada Index, EWC
0.35% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.33% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.32% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.31% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.31% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.30% , Networking, IGN
0.30% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.30% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.30% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.30% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.30% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.29% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.28% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.28% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.28% , Spain Index, EWP
0.28% , Italy Index, EWI
0.27% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.27% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.26% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.25% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.25% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.25% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.24% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.24% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.22% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.22% , Russia MV, RSX
0.21% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.21% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% , Germany Index, EWG
0.20% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.16% , Water Resources, PHO
0.16% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.11% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.07% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.06% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.05% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.03% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.03% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.03% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.02% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.01% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.00% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.00% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.00% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.02% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.02% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.02% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.04% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.04% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.04% , France Index, EWQ
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.04% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.04% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.04% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.06% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.10% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.12% , India PS, PIN
-0.12% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.13% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.13% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.15% , Global 100, IOO
-0.16% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.16% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.17% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.20% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.25% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.27% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.32% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.32% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.33% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.38% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.39% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.39% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.40% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.47% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.52% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.79% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.83% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.84% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.94% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.13% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.64% , Indonesia MV, IDX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1761.74, 50-day SMA
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1664.28, 200-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
