Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed back up above its 200-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,872.01, up 0.60%) absolute price started lower but turned up after the first 20 minutes and rose to a peak at 2:23 pm ET before turning choppy into a firm close. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing price levels of the previous trading day. It was an Inside Day, confined within the previous day’s high-low range, which suggests consolidation.
NYSE total volume rose 2% to a level 1% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 134 from 181 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index turned down on 3/11/14 after 4 weeks of sluggish performance lagging the price index itself. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 3/7/14 and both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14, thereby demonstrating bearish divergence.
The minor trend of the stock market appears uncertain after a 4-week rally from 2/3/14 to 3/7/14. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the March higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price broke down below the lows of the previous 2 years on 3/14/14, thereby confirming a long-term downtrend. On 2/7/14, price crossed below its 50-day SMA thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 3/14/14, reconfirming a medium-term uptrend. GLD turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is rising up toward the still-declining 200-day SMA, and the distance between the two SMAs is narrowing. Support: 127.15, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is rising up toward the still-declining 200-day SMA, and the distance between the two SMAs is narrowing. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.58% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
1.63% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
4.36% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.62% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.15% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
3.08% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
3.43% , T , AT&T Corp., T
3.70% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
3.19% , ZION , ZIONS
2.92% , ALTR , ALTERA
2.77% , XLNX , XILINX
2.60% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
3.56% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
3.10% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.75% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
2.12% , HAR , Harman International
2.70% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
2.14% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.68% , CTAS , CINTAS
0.13% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.75% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
2.91% , CMA , COMERICA
2.27% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.94% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.46% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.20% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
3.14% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.58% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
3.77% , NE , NOBLE
2.36% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.56% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.96% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
1.95% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.32% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.85% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-1.75% , TIF , TIFFANY
-1.54% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-2.34% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.44% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.66% , CB , CHUBB
-3.60% , MAS , MASCO
-1.75% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.89% , AEE , AMEREN
-2.47% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.87% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-1.47% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.64% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.17% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.27% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.83% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.60% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.28% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.60% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.20% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.12% , LB , L Brands, LB
-2.18% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.09% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.53% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.52% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.15% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.64% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.13% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.36% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.23% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-1.33% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-2.76% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.36% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.34% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.32% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.01% , Networking, IGN
1.98% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.94% , India PS, PIN
1.90% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.85% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.79% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.63% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.62% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.58% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.46% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.34% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.33% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.28% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.01% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.91% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.82% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.81% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.79% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.77% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.74% , France Index, EWQ
0.71% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.70% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.68% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.66% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.65% , Italy Index, EWI
0.63% , Spain Index, EWP
0.62% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.61% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.59% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.59% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.58% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.55% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.51% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.50% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.50% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.48% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.48% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.47% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.45% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.44% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.44% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.41% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.41% , Global 100, IOO
0.40% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.40% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.39% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.38% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.35% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.35% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.34% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.34% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.34% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.34% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.32% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.32% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.31% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.30% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.30% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.29% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.29% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.29% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.28% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.27% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.26% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.26% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.24% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.23% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.22% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.22% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.21% , Energy Global, IXC
0.21% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.21% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.20% , Austria Index, EWO
0.17% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.16% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.15% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.15% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.14% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.14% , Canada Index, EWC
0.13% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.13% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.13% , Germany Index, EWG
0.13% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.10% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.09% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.02% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.00% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.03% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.03% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.06% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.13% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.13% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.13% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.14% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.15% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.17% , Dividend International, PID
-0.18% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.20% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.20% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.28% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.29% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.30% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.31% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.36% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.38% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.43% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.46% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.52% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.52% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.64% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.73% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.73% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.76% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.14% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.17% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.23% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.24% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.36% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.44% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.92% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.34% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.48% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.60% , Russia MV, RSX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,883.57, high of 3/9/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1831.56, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1742.00, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
