The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,865.62, up 0.44%) absolute price opened higher on Tuesday but reversed to the downside after the first 42 minutes. By 12:29 pm ET, SPX had fallen below the close of the previous trading day. An afternoon recovery lifted SPX back up just slightly below the open, forming an indecisive Doji Candlestick. It was also an Inside Day, a continuation bar suggesting consolidation of the losses of the previous 2 trading days. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing price levels of the previous trading day.
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 4,234.27, up 0.19%) rose less than half the SPX gain, with Biotech and small-cap stocks closing lower for the day.
NYSE total volume fell 6% to a level 4% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 108 from 107 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index turned down on 3/11/14 after 4 weeks of sluggish performance lagging the price index itself. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 3/7/14 and both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14, thereby demonstrating bearish divergence.
The minor trend of the stock market appears uncertain after a 4-week rally from 2/3/14 to 3/7/14. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the March higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed down below its 50-day SMA on 3/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is rising up toward the still-declining 200-day SMA, and the distance between the two SMAs is narrowing, so that a crossover seems likely in days ahead. Support: 127.15, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.54% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.32% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.17% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
3.61% , IBM , IBM
0.16% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
5.47% , MKC , MCCORMICK
3.80% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
2.29% , GLW , CORNING
3.57% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
1.69% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.54% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.67% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.71% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.28% , WAG , WALGREEN
3.33% , CVG , CONVERGYS
2.28% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.80% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
1.52% , ASH , ASHLAND
2.82% , NCR , NCR
1.76% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.95% , TER , TERADYNE
0.53% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
1.84% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.86% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
2.94% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.78% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.32% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.14% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
1.53% , PCAR , PACCAR
2.50% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
1.42% , MET , METLIFE
3.27% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.47% , BBT , BB&T
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.95% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.44% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-3.20% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.32% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.42% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.39% , ECL , ECOLAB
-2.77% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-2.02% , GPS , GAP
-2.11% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.74% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.92% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-2.76% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.49% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.51% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-2.11% , AN , AUTONATION
-1.08% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-2.06% , KMX , CarMax
-0.67% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-2.14% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.56% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.44% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.01% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.92% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.79% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-0.89% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.04% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.09% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.92% , CMA , COMERICA
-0.59% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.23% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.61% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-0.07% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.87% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.00% , Russia MV, RSX
2.28% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.09% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.84% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.69% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.67% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.54% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.54% , France Index, EWQ
1.45% , Germany Index, EWG
1.32% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.30% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.28% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.24% , Australia Index, EWA
1.23% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.22% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.19% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.17% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.16% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.15% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.14% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.14% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.13% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.11% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.10% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.09% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.00% , India PS, PIN
0.97% , Global 100, IOO
0.97% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.96% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.94% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.94% , Italy Index, EWI
0.91% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.91% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.91% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.90% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.89% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.85% , Energy Global, IXC
0.85% , Dividend International, PID
0.82% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.81% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.80% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.77% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.73% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.71% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% , Austria Index, EWO
0.66% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.61% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.58% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.57% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.55% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.52% , Networking, IGN
0.51% , Spain Index, EWP
0.51% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.49% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.48% , Canada Index, EWC
0.48% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.47% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.47% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.46% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.46% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.46% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.46% , Water Resources, PHO
0.46% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.43% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.42% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.40% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.38% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.33% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.31% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.29% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.27% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.24% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.21% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.20% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.15% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.07% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.06% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.04% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.03% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.03% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.03% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.03% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.08% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.08% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.09% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.09% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.10% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.11% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.14% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.19% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.23% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.23% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.26% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.26% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.27% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.27% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.27% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.28% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.28% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.29% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.33% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.36% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.38% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.41% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.42% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.44% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.47% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.49% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.60% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.66% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.77% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,883.97, high of 3/21/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1832.99, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1745.58, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
