Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price broke out to its highest level in nearly 9 months on 3/27/14 and is now systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,857.62, up 0.46%) absolute price opened higher on Friday and rose further in the first 85 minutes to a peak at 10:55 am ET. Stock prices spent the remainder of the day drifting lower and surrendering most of the early gain. SPX closed moderately above the open and moderately below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. It was another indecisive session.
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 4,155.76, up 0.11%) rose less than one-quarter of the percentage SPX gain, continuing its recent trend of underperformance, with Biotech stocks losing 3.67% and dragging the NASDAQ down again.
NYSE total volume fell 20% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 140 from 57 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index remain weak. Both turned down on 3/11/14 after 4 weeks of sluggish performance lagging the price index itself. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 3/7/14 and both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14, thereby demonstrating bearish divergence.
The minor trend of the stock market appears uncertain after a 4-week rally from 2/3/14 to 3/7/14. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the March higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 3/21/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/26/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/26/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price broke out to its highest level in nearly 9 months on 3/27/14 and is now systematically bullish. Support 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price has been fluctuating around its SMAs for many months and appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range. Support 101.20, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 103.40, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been fluctuating around its SMAs since peaking on 9/10/13 and currently appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range. Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been fluctuating around its SMAs since setting a low on 6/24/13 and currently appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range. Absolute price has been fluctuating around its SMAs since setting a low on 9/5/13 and currently appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range between 113.54 and 108.63.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Longer term, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84 since 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). USO appears to have firmed somewhat since making a low at 29.02 on 6/28/12. Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.74, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price, trading in a range between 114.46 and 133.69 since on 12/31/13, remains systematically neutral. Support: 127.15, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically bearish. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.19% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.61% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
6.23% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.19% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.08% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.84% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.99% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.03% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.99% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.04% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
2.60% , EIX , EDISON INTL
2.60% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.56% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.76% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
2.59% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.51% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.10% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
0.54% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.68% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.71% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
1.70% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.57% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
2.63% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.58% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
1.42% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.44% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.40% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.48% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.93% , AES , AES
1.49% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.39% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
4.43% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.10% , MAS , MASCO
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.95% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-4.01% , PCG , PG&E
-7.07% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-4.01% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-5.05% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-0.86% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.67% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-0.96% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-0.89% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-3.62% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.70% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-0.55% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.50% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.44% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.74% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.56% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.33% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-0.34% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.48% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.32% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.08% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.61% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.10% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.05% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.38% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.08% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.97% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.97% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.77% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.69% , India PS, PIN
1.56% , Italy Index, EWI
1.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.36% , Germany Index, EWG
1.30% , Spain Index, EWP
1.30% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.30% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.25% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.25% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.25% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.23% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.19% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.16% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.09% , Energy Global, IXC
1.07% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.03% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.99% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.98% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.93% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.90% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.90% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.89% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.85% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.80% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.79% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.79% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.75% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.75% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.75% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.74% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.73% , Dividend International, PID
0.72% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.70% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.70% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.69% , Global 100, IOO
0.69% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.68% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.68% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.67% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.66% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.66% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.65% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.65% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.64% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.64% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.63% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.63% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.60% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.59% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.59% , France Index, EWQ
0.58% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.57% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.56% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.54% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.54% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.54% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.53% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.52% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.52% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.52% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.51% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.51% , Austria Index, EWO
0.51% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.50% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.50% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.50% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.49% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.48% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.48% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.47% , Australia Index, EWA
0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.46% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.45% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.44% , Canada Index, EWC
0.44% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.44% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.44% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.42% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.42% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.41% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.39% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.39% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.38% , Water Resources, PHO
0.37% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.36% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.36% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.35% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.33% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.30% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.30% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.28% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.28% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.28% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.28% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.27% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.26% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.26% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.24% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.24% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.20% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.19% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.13% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.11% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.10% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.04% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.02% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.05% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.10% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.11% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.15% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.17% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.17% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.25% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.25% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.35% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.38% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.52% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.56% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.58% , Networking, IGN
-0.82% , Russia MV, RSX
-3.62% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,883.97, high of 3/21/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1834.05, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1748.97, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
