Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/17/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,864.85, up 0.14%) absolute price opened slightly lower but turned upward after the first 25 minutes. SPX worked moderately higher until 3:15 pm ET, then eased mildly lower in the final 45 minutes. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 7% to a level 2% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 218 from 174 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Although the S&P 500 closed at a new high on 4/2/14, neither the Nasdaq Composite Index nor the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high, suggesting non-confirmation.
Beyond the day-to-day short term, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Non-confirmations, momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, with the Transportation Average setting higher highs and the Industrial Average setting lower closing price highs. Such divergence suggests that significant sectors are not in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average closing above its high of 12/31/13 to confirm the higher closing price high of the Transportation Average set on high on 4/2/14, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is moving down toward but remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 4/10/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support: 123.11, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has been systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically bearish. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.08% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
6.06% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
9.41% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
6.36% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
3.05% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
4.32% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
4.09% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
2.48% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
3.00% , SNA , SNAP ON
2.50% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.68% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
2.08% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
2.91% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
2.78% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.65% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
2.11% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
4.20% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.44% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.27% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.58% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.67% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.86% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
0.92% , PEP , PEPSICO
2.74% , DOV , DOVER
2.15% , AN , AUTONATION
1.59% , TYC , TYCO INTL
2.79% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
0.83% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.54% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
0.26% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.42% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
2.82% , NBR , NABORS
1.64% , EFX , EQUIFAX
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-16.57% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-4.76% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-3.73% , HUM , HUMANA
-4.12% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-3.01% , AET , AETNA
-2.99% , MDP , MEREDITH
-3.82% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-3.58% , BBT , BB&T
-2.23% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-3.44% , FHN , First Horizon National
-3.08% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.01% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.35% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-1.72% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-3.67% , GOOG , Google
-1.35% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-1.48% , CI , CIGNA
-1.86% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-3.25% , IBM , IBM
-1.09% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.93% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.83% , AVP , AVON
-0.55% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.42% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.23% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.10% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.24% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.02% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.01% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.63% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-0.33% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.58% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.20% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.06% , Russia MV, RSX
2.00% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.91% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.88% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.74% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.72% , India PS, PIN
1.36% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.26% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.22% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.21% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.19% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.19% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.04% , Networking, IGN
1.01% , Germany Index, EWG
0.94% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.93% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.91% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.91% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.90% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.86% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.82% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.80% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.78% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.75% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.75% , Energy Global, IXC
0.74% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.72% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.67% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.65% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.65% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.63% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.61% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.61% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.59% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.58% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.57% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.55% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.55% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.53% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.52% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.51% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.50% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.50% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.49% , Dividend International, PID
0.48% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.48% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.48% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.48% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.46% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.46% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.44% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.42% , France Index, EWQ
0.41% , Austria Index, EWO
0.40% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.40% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.37% , Canada Index, EWC
0.34% , Water Resources, PHO
0.32% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.32% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.31% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.31% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.30% , Australia Index, EWA
0.30% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.29% , Global 100, IOO
0.29% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.28% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.27% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.27% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.25% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.24% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.23% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.22% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.21% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.21% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.20% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.19% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.18% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.17% , Italy Index, EWI
0.16% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.15% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.13% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.13% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.11% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.11% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.10% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.07% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.04% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.03% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.03% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.02% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.12% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.12% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.14% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.16% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.20% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.23% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.26% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.28% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.32% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.32% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.33% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.34% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.45% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.56% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.57% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.58% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.58% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.63% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.67% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.01% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.10% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.24% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1872.53, high of 4/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1851.16, 50-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1766.19, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
