NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY) dropped down to last place in my Relative Strength Ranking.
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price also crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,885.08, up 0.38%) absolute price opened lower but quickly moved to the plus side and continued to rise most of the morning. Stocks turned choppy but held firm from late morning to the closing bell. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume fell 1% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 196 from 135 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs on 5/13/14 and continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/13/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at new closing price highs. Such a confirmation suggests that Industrial and Transportation sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish or neutral since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3-months on 5/15/14, crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, and remains systematically neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.79% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.86% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.27% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
1.15% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.64% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.61% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.52% , CR , CRANE
0.56% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.59% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.99% , NI , NISOURCE
1.97% , HUM , HUMANA
0.54% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
2.78% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
7.26% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.01% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
3.23% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.39% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.75% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.94% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.13% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.87% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.13% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
1.25% , PCAR , PACCAR
0.75% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.48% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.57% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.56% , FDX , FEDEX
1.62% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
0.45% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.77% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.54% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.70% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.37% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.35% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-8.47% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.71% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.98% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.98% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-1.21% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-2.24% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.43% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.47% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-3.19% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.07% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.32% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.21% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.72% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.83% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.74% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.27% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.55% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-1.59% , ED , CON ED
-0.80% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-0.15% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-0.16% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.13% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-1.18% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-1.11% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-0.28% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.11% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.51% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.27% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.45% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.92% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-0.11% , A , AGILENT TECH
-0.03% , CSX , CSX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.18% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.13% , Russia MV, RSX
2.12% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.86% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.60% , Networking, IGN
1.45% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.29% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.28% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.27% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.25% , India PS, PIN
1.17% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.08% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.06% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.01% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.96% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.95% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.94% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.93% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.87% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.84% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.83% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.82% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.81% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.81% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.75% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.71% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.71% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.70% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.66% , Water Resources, PHO
0.65% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.62% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.59% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.59% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.57% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.55% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.53% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.53% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.52% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.52% , Energy Global, IXC
0.50% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.50% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.47% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.47% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.46% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.46% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.45% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.45% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.45% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.42% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.42% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.41% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.40% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.40% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.37% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.37% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.37% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.37% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.36% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.34% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.34% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.33% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.32% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.31% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.29% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.27% , France Index, EWQ
0.27% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.26% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.24% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.22% , Germany Index, EWG
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Canada Index, EWC
0.19% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.19% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.17% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.17% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.12% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.11% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.11% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.06% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.00% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.07% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.08% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.09% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.10% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.12% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.13% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.14% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.14% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.15% , Global 100, IOO
-0.16% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.17% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.20% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.20% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.22% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.23% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.23% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.27% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.28% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.30% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.31% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.33% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.36% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.38% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.40% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.48% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.51% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.54% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.55% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.58% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.74% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.74% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.82% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.85% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.07% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.31% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.43% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.54% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1868.02, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1787.58, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
