Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 5/20/14 and is now systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX also is systematically bearish.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,872.83, down 0.65%) absolute price opened lower and fell further by the time of the intraday low at 2:00 pm ET. Stocks stabilized and partially recovered in the final 2 hours. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 2 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 9% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 109 from 196 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs on 5/13/14 and continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/13/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at new closing price highs. Such a confirmation suggests that Industrial and Transportation sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish or neutral since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 254.48 on 4/4/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 5/20/14 and is now systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX also is systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.29% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.31% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.78% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.91% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.72% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
0.62% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.21% , AN , AUTONATION
1.10% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
1.34% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.28% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.46% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.97% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.85% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.93% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
0.45% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.21% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.26% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.10% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.09% , AON , AON
0.05% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.62% , TJX , TJX
-12.55% , SPLS , STAPLES
-8.82% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-6.23% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.42% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-10.94% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.36% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.38% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-4.42% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.74% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-4.24% , LB , L Brands, LB
-5.59% , BBY , BEST BUY
-4.70% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-2.66% , AA , ALCOA
-2.78% , TIF , TIFFANY
-3.63% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-3.03% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-2.88% , TGT , TARGET
-4.04% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-5.36% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.63% , IVV , S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.41% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.96% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-3.88% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.07% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.65% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.58% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-2.06% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-4.24% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.33% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.21% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.53% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.96% , TXT , TEXTRON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.24% , Russia MV, RSX
0.62% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.48% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.43% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.37% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.29% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.12% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.13% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.13% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.13% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.14% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.21% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.22% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.23% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.26% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.26% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.26% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.28% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.29% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.29% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.31% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.31% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.34% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.36% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.36% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.36% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.39% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.39% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.42% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.42% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.45% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.48% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.51% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.54% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.54% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.55% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.55% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.55% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.57% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.57% , France Index, EWQ
-0.57% , India PS, PIN
-0.57% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.58% , Dividend International, PID
-0.58% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.59% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.59% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.59% , Global 100, IOO
-0.59% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.61% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.61% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.63% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.63% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.63% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.63% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.63% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.64% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.65% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.65% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.65% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.65% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.65% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.66% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.66% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.66% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.68% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.69% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.69% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.69% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.72% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.75% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.75% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.76% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.76% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.78% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.81% , Networking, IGN
-0.82% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.83% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.84% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.84% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.84% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.87% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.88% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.88% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.91% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.91% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.93% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.95% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.97% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.99% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.00% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.02% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.05% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.06% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.07% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.07% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.11% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.16% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.16% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.18% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.19% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.22% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.23% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.26% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.33% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.36% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.39% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.40% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.41% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.43% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.48% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.49% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.52% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.52% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.53% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.55% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.56% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.84% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.98% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.05% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.15% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.41% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.42% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.88% , Indonesia MV, IDX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1867.93, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1788.40, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
