Volume is sagging lower on this price bounce.

It is a sign of weakness when volume increases on price declines, and volume dries up on rallies.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,892.49, up 0.24%) absolute price opened slightly higher and continued to move upward for the first 124 minutes, rising above its intraday highs of the previous 5 trading days. SPX turned choppy for about 3.5 hours before sagging moderately in the final hour. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 6 trading days.

NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 18% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 80 from 132 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs on 5/13/14 and continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.

Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 10 months on 5/15/14 and remains systematically bullish. Support 110.54, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 10 months on 5/15/14 and remains systematically bullish. Support 102.41, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell to its lowest level in 12 weeks on 5/2/14 and remains systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish on 4/23/14, when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP turned systematically bullish on 4/7/14 and rose to its highest level in 10 months on 5/14/14.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.43% , BBY , BEST BUY
6.62% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
4.84% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
6.00% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.42% , WAG , WALGREEN
4.58% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.50% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.73% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.29% , DHR , DANAHER
0.94% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.14% , MON , MONSANTO
0.33% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
1.11% , HES , AMERADA HESS
3.15% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
3.30% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.65% , NBR , NABORS
1.21% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.95% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.28% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
3.12% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.89% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.27% , AZO , AUTOZONE
2.62% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.20% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.41% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
4.21% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
0.98% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.42% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.97% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.63% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.99% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.60% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.63% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.34% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-4.39% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-5.87% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-2.48% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.28% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-4.98% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.21% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.09% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.29% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.94% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.02% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.64% , CB , CHUBB
-0.36% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.83% , BCR , C R BARD
-5.69% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.45% , KR , KROGER
-1.49% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.30% , CL , COLGATE
-0.29% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.17% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.25% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-0.39% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.13% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.33% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.25% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.60% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-0.09% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-0.27% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-2.07% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.02% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.99% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.82% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.76% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.74% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.54% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.38% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.32% , Italy Index, EWI
1.23% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.21% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.18% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.13% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.11% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.08% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.08% , Energy Global, IXC
1.07% , Russia MV, RSX
1.06% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.05% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.04% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.02% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.99% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.97% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.97% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.97% , Spain Index, EWP
0.95% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.94% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.87% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.86% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.86% , Canada Index, EWC
0.85% , Australia Index, EWA
0.84% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.84% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.84% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.83% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.83% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.82% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.82% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.82% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.82% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.81% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.80% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.79% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.79% , Global 100, IOO
0.79% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.79% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.78% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.78% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.78% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.78% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.77% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.77% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.77% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.77% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.77% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.75% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.74% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.73% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.73% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.72% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.71% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.70% , Germany Index, EWG
0.70% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.70% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.69% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.69% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.69% , Dividend International, PID
0.68% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.68% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.67% , India PS, PIN
0.66% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.65% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.64% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.63% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.63% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.62% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.62% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.62% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.62% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.61% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.61% , France Index, EWQ
0.60% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.57% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.56% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.56% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.55% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.55% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.53% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.51% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.51% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.50% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.48% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.48% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.47% , Water Resources, PHO
0.46% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.46% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.45% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.44% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.44% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.39% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.36% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.36% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.36% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.34% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.34% , Networking, IGN
0.31% , Austria Index, EWO
0.31% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.30% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.30% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.25% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.23% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.23% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.20% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.20% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.20% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.07% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.01% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.06% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.10% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.24% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.39% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.56% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.58% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.61% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.82% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1868.33, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1790.28, 200-day SMA