Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 5/27/14 and probably will turn systematically bearish in days ahead.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell to its lowest level in nearly 5 months on 5/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 months on 5/27/14, thereby confirming a downside price pullback.
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/27/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1911.91, up 0.60%) absolute price gapped higher at the open and continued to move upward during the first hour. Prices sagged moderately in the middle of the day but headed upward again after 1:35 pm ET, rising to a higher high. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above all previous closing prices.
NYSE total volume roe 18% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 422 from 235 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs in 2014 to confirm price. Both continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/13/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at new closing price highs. On 5/27/14, the Transportation Average rose to a higher high but the Industrial Average remained below its previous high. Although such a non-confirmation merits watching, we usually allow more time for the Averages to confirm one another before sounding the alarm.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish or neutral since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 254.48 on 4/4/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 months on 5/27/14, thereby confirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 5/23/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 5/27/14 and probably will turn systematically bearish in days ahead. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell to its lowest level in nearly 5 months on 5/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.56% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.84% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.92% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
2.51% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
3.60% , EXC , EXELON CORP
2.94% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
2.69% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
3.40% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
3.00% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.15% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
3.85% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
2.57% , UIS , UNISYS
3.06% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.78% , KSS , KOHLS
2.88% , PPL , PPL
3.05% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
3.63% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.56% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.94% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.40% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
0.52% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.23% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
7.44% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.01% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
3.36% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.58% , MET , METLIFE
1.37% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
1.33% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
1.02% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.61% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.29% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
3.27% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.90% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.52% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.14% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.46% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.20% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.61% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-3.82% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.61% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.08% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-2.41% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.15% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.28% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.83% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-3.65% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.45% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-2.96% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.93% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-1.11% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.97% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.44% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.52% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.62% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.47% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.57% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.20% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.62% , IBM , IBM
-0.37% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-0.25% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-0.67% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.55% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.45% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-0.20% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.35% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.89% , TJX , TJX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.53% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.13% , Italy Index, EWI
2.30% , Austria Index, EWO
1.92% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.87% , Germany Index, EWG
1.55% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.52% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.48% , Spain Index, EWP
1.44% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.37% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.36% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.27% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.27% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.26% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.25% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.25% , Networking, IGN
1.24% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.23% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.23% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.20% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.14% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.11% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.07% , France Index, EWQ
1.02% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.98% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.98% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.98% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.94% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.88% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.87% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.87% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.86% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.86% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.83% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.82% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.81% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.80% , Water Resources, PHO
0.80% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.80% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.79% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.79% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.78% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.77% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.76% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.71% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.71% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.69% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.69% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.68% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.67% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.66% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.66% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.65% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.62% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.62% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.61% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.60% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.60% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.59% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.59% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.58% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.58% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.57% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.57% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.57% , Australia Index, EWA
0.56% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.55% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.55% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.54% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.52% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.52% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.52% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.51% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.50% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.49% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.44% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.42% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.41% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.41% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.41% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.39% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% , Global 100, IOO
0.36% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.35% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.35% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.35% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.31% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.30% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.30% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.28% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.27% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.22% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.20% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.13% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.12% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.11% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.10% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% , Energy Global, IXC
0.04% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.03% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.06% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.08% , Dividend International, PID
-0.10% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.20% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.22% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.25% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.39% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.46% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.52% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.62% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.73% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.82% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.83% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.86% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.87% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.95% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.98% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.11% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.20% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.57% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.61% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.02% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.14% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.39% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.96% , India PS, PIN
-3.65% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1871.33, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1792.40, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
