The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/17/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,941.99, up 0.22%) absolute price opened lower but reversed to the upside within the first half hour. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 3 days by 2:24 pm ET before stabilizing at a relatively high level into the close. SPX closed above both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The stock market has turned relatively dull, but at least it has been resilience over the past 3 trading days.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 hit 99% on 6/6/14. That level signaled an extremely overbought condition. Stocks have been correcting and consolidating in the days since.
NYSE total volume rose less than 1% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 234, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and slowing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/11/14. Year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/17/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Previously, OEF/SPY was in a persistent downtrend from 9/24/12 to 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/9/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/13/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). In recent years, SMA crossovers did not produce significant trend change, however. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX has stabilized somewhat and appears to be consolidating losses this year, 2014.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/12/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA, however.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/6/14, turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.71% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
0.94% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
4.02% , MBI , MBIA
3.98% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
3.78% , NCR , NCR
7.74% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.19% , IGV , Software, IGV
0.83% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
3.05% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
0.74% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
3.14% , MET , METLIFE
3.05% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.11% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
2.99% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
2.63% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
5.49% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
2.02% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.85% , COH , COACH
3.21% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
2.19% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
3.64% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.02% , ZION , ZIONS
2.68% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
2.48% , STT , STATE STREET
2.53% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
1.94% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.84% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.44% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.49% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.32% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.01% , DLX , DELUXE
1.56% , NE , NOBLE
3.09% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.42% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.48% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.98% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.12% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.58% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.31% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.86% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.10% , K , KELLOGG
-1.21% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.80% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-1.26% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.47% , DD , DU PONT
-0.43% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.44% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.46% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-0.97% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.71% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-0.07% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.75% , EMC , EMC
-0.44% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-0.33% , CR , CRANE
-0.17% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.87% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.23% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.17% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.65% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.08% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.17% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.40% , KR , KROGER
-0.27% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.20% , APA , APACHE
-0.42% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.35% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.09% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.02% , India PS, PIN
1.96% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.76% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.58% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.20% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.06% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.04% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.02% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.00% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.94% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.91% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.90% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.86% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.84% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.83% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.82% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.81% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.76% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.74% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.74% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.73% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.73% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.72% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.71% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.64% , Water Resources, PHO
0.60% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.60% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.58% , Networking, IGN
0.55% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.51% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.48% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.46% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.45% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.44% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.44% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.39% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.38% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.37% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.37% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.35% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.30% , France Index, EWQ
0.30% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.29% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.28% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.28% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.28% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.27% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.26% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.24% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.24% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.23% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.23% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.22% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.22% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.22% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.21% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.21% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.20% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.20% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.19% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.19% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.18% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.18% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.17% , Italy Index, EWI
0.16% , Germany Index, EWG
0.15% , Russia MV, RSX
0.12% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.12% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.11% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.10% , Dividend International, PID
0.09% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.09% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.06% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.05% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
0.05% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.02% , Spain Index, EWP
0.02% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.01% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.00% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.00% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.05% , Global 100, IOO
-0.05% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.06% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.07% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.07% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.07% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.08% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.08% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.11% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.12% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.14% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.14% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.15% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.16% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.18% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.19% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.25% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.25% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.26% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.28% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.28% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.30% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.32% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.33% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.33% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.34% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.42% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.42% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.46% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.59% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.62% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.79% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.80% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.85% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.86% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.98% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.12% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.13% , Latin Am 40, ILF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,955.55 , high of 6/9/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1,925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1891.27, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.96, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
