The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell further below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/18/14 and remains systematically bearish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,956.98, up 0.77%) absolute price was little changed before the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm ET, after which SPX rose to a new all-time high, thereby confirming its 5-year uptrend. SPX closed above both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 rose to a neutral 73 from its recent low of a neutral 53 on 6/16/14. It peaked at 99% on 6/6/14–a level that signaled an extremely overbought condition.
NYSE total volume rose 4% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 431, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and slowing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/11/14 and has not recovered. Year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell further below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/18/14 and remains systematically bearish. Previously, OEF/SPY was in a persistent downtrend from 9/24/12 to 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/9/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 11 months on 5/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. Support 111.79, 110.54, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 11 months on 5/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. Support 103.28, 102.41, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/28/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. JNK/LQD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price of TIP turned systematically bullish on 4/7/14 and rose to its highest level in 11 months on 5/29/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/13/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). In recent years, SMA crossovers did not produce significant trend change, however. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX has stabilized somewhat and appears to be consolidating losses this year, 2014.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/12/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA, however.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/6/14, turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.50% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
6.16% , FDX , FEDEX
4.08% , WAG , WALGREEN
2.98% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.80% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.68% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
4.27% , ADSK , AUTODESK
8.20% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
5.12% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.27% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
3.54% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
3.35% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.18% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
2.69% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
3.02% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.50% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.75% , PCG , PG&E
2.63% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
1.80% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.48% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
1.98% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
2.51% , AEE , AMEREN
1.75% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.09% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.06% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.70% , EIX , EDISON INTL
1.84% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
1.59% , PLL , PALL
1.49% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.91% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
1.93% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.13% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
0.86% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.25% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.78% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-3.97% , COH , COACH
-2.23% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.48% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.52% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-4.23% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.98% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.47% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.55% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.23% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-0.42% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.16% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.41% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-1.14% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.84% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.12% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-0.31% , XRX , XEROX
-0.59% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.51% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.26% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.12% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-0.08% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-0.19% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.10% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.17% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.07% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-0.07% , INTC , INTEL
-1.09% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.08% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.50% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.22% , BMS , BEMIS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.63% , Russia MV, RSX
2.27% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.15% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.02% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.02% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.01% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.96% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.93% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.80% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.80% , Spain Index, EWP
1.62% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.55% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.49% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.46% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.35% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.31% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.28% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.18% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.15% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.14% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.12% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.12% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.11% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.09% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.08% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.06% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.06% , Italy Index, EWI
1.02% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.99% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.99% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.95% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.93% , Energy Global, IXC
0.90% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.88% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.88% , Germany Index, EWG
0.86% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.86% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.85% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.85% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.83% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.83% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.80% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.80% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.80% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.80% , Australia Index, EWA
0.80% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.79% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.79% , Austria Index, EWO
0.78% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.78% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.78% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.77% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.77% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.76% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.76% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.76% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.75% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.75% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.74% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.74% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.74% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.74% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.73% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.73% , France Index, EWQ
0.72% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.72% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.71% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.70% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.70% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.69% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.68% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.68% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.68% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.67% , Global 100, IOO
0.67% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.65% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.63% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.63% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.63% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.63% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.62% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.62% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.62% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.61% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.61% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.60% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.60% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.60% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.60% , Water Resources, PHO
0.60% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.60% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.60% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.58% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.58% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.58% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.57% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.57% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.56% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.56% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.54% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.53% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.52% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.51% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.50% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.49% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.49% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.48% , Canada Index, EWC
0.47% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.47% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.45% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.44% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.43% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.42% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.41% , Dividend International, PID
0.41% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.39% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.37% , India PS, PIN
0.34% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.33% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.32% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.32% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.31% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.31% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.25% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.20% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.13% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.11% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.09% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Networking, IGN
-0.42% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.64% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.80% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.84% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1,925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1893.51, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1814.58, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
