Inflation appeared to be an emerging theme last week as oil, gold, silver, and copper really perked up. It appears to have much to do with all the talk about developing conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine. Those are volatile situations, and events there can change quickly. More conflict might support the trend, but if peace breaks out prices could fall instantly. Astute traders will be ready to react to anything.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby re confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend.
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 6/20/14, thereby confirming its major uptrend. Energy stocks are so strong (one might say overbought) that they are robbing Relative Strength from all of the other 8 major stock market sectors.
Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its highs of the previous 13 months on 6/20/14, thereby confirming its major uptrend.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,962.87, up 0.17%) absolute price opened higher and rose further to a peak at 11:11 am ET. SPX turned choppy for the rest of the day but held on to most its early gain. SPX made another new all-time high, thereby reconfirming its 5-year uptrend yet again. SPX closed above both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 rose to an overbought level at 86, up from its recent low of a neutral 59 on 6/17/14.
NYSE total volume rose 43% to a level 27% above its 200-day SMA–reflecting seasonal trading related to expiration of options and futures on Friday, diminishing the significance of the increase. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 545, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and slowing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/11/14 and has not fully recovered–even though price indexes are higher. Year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Divergences, low trading volume on up days (generally, not always), rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Previously, OEF/SPY was in a persistent downtrend from 9/24/12 to 2/25/14 but has been neutral most of the time since 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/9/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months, above its 50-day SMA, and above its 200-day SMA on 6/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. GDX/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 and remains systematically neutral.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/12/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
16.50% , KMX , CarMax
5.15% , AN , AUTONATION
3.64% , LLY , ELI LILLY
3.08% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
2.47% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
2.65% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.60% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.99% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
0.91% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.21% , ZION , ZIONS
2.00% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
0.79% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.44% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.89% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.86% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.32% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.83% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
1.47% , DLX , DELUXE
1.53% , DD , DU PONT
1.15% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.26% , NBR , NABORS
1.41% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.72% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
0.80% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.27% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.30% , TER , TERADYNE
0.61% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.75% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
1.06% , USB , US BANCORP
1.06% , MRK , MERCK & CO
1.67% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
1.57% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
2.23% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.96% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-10.43% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-9.27% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.92% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-3.98% , ORCL.K , ORACLE
-2.24% , NUE , NUCOR
-2.20% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.36% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-1.51% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-3.27% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.86% , EMC , EMC
-1.75% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-2.25% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-2.46% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.56% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.50% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.13% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-1.43% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-1.03% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.51% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-1.58% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.69% , IBM , IBM
-0.75% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.47% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.17% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.10% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-0.54% , BA , BOEING
-0.36% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.16% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.71% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.39% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.01% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.64% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.04% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.01% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.00% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.98% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.95% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.84% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.76% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.69% , Energy Global, IXC
0.63% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.63% , Canada Index, EWC
0.57% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.56% , Water Resources, PHO
0.55% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.53% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.52% , Networking, IGN
0.50% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.50% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.49% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.46% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.45% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.42% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.41% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.39% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.37% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.37% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.36% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.35% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.35% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.35% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.35% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.33% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.33% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.31% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.31% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.31% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.30% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.30% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.29% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.27% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.27% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.27% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.27% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.26% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.24% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.24% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.24% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.21% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.20% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.20% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.19% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.19% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.19% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.18% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.17% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.17% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.15% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.15% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.14% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.14% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.12% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.10% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.09% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.08% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.07% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.06% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.05% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.03% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.02% , Global 100, IOO
0.02% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.00% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.00% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.12% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.14% , India PS, PIN
-0.14% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.15% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.17% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.18% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.18% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.18% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.19% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.21% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.26% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.26% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.27% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.27% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.27% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.27% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.30% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.32% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.34% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.34% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.35% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.37% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.37% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.41% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.44% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.44% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.47% , Dividend International, PID
-0.48% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.53% , France Index, EWQ
-0.56% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.56% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.56% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.68% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.68% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.69% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.69% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.79% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.83% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.87% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.99% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.99% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.02% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.02% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.41% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.45% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1897.47, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1817.73, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
