The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,957.22, down 0.12%) absolute price fell steeply for the first 22 minutes of the day on Thursday, breaking below the intraday lows of the previous 5 trading days. SPX struggled to recover the rest of the day but finally managed to gain back the great majority of the early loss. SPX closed modestly below the open and well above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.

The small real body with long lower shadow and no upper shadow qualifies Thursday’s candlestick as a hammer. The market rejected the early breakdown and recovered. The hammer signals a reversal 60% of the time, which is only a little better than random (see: http://thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html).

Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down after hitting an overbought level above 94 on 6/23/14.

NYSE total volume fell 11% to a level 16% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 295, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/24/14 after failing to match the recent highs of 6/9/14 to 6/10/14. In addition, year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Overvalued, overbought, bearish divergences, low trading volume on up days (generally, not always), rising trading volume on down days, and excessively bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. At the same time, the overwhelming bullish majority appears to be going on faith that central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies will make stocks rise ever higher, despite the obvious fact that central banks have failed to prevent numerous substantial market declines in the past.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, but the spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Still, OEF/SPY has stabilized somewhat since making a low on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/20/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, thereby reconfirming its bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months, above its 50-day SMA, and above its 200-day SMA on 6/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. GDX/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 and remains systematically neutral.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/12/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

6.23% , NBR , NABORS
2.68% , AA , ALCOA
4.13% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.12% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
3.03% , NCR , NCR
0.34% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.75% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
2.22% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.95% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
2.18% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.77% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.10% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.28% , AN , AUTONATION
1.96% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.95% , PLL , PALL
0.40% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.76% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
1.14% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.55% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.84% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
0.51% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.15% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.24% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.94% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.17% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.18% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.16% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.27% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.36% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
0.35% , KR , KROGER
0.30% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.01% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.08% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-7.22% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-3.55% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-2.24% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-2.70% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.99% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-1.25% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-1.99% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.73% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.51% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.28% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.34% , CMI , CUMMINS
-4.34% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.23% , C , CITIGROUP
-0.94% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-0.34% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.25% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.91% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-0.74% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-1.05% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-0.48% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.55% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.65% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.45% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.66% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.27% , PX , PRAXAIR
-0.49% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.38% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.25% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.57% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.33% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.34% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-1.01% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.48% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.38% , Australia Index, EWA
1.26% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.07% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.03% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.98% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.87% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.73% , Canada Index, EWC
0.59% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.55% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.55% , Networking, IGN
0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.48% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.48% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.42% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.37% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.36% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.36% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.34% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.32% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.30% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.30% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.29% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.27% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.26% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% , Austria Index, EWO
0.25% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.19% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.19% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% , Spain Index, EWP
0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.18% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.17% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.17% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% , Dividend International, PID
0.16% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% , Energy Global, IXC
0.13% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.12% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.11% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.10% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.10% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.08% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.07% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.05% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.05% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.03% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.02% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.02% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.03% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.03% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.04% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.05% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.05% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.05% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.06% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.07% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.07% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.08% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.08% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.09% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.09% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.09% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.09% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.09% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.10% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.10% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.11% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.11% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.11% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.12% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.12% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.12% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.12% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.14% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.14% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.15% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.16% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.17% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.17% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.17% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.19% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.20% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.21% , France Index, EWQ
-0.21% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.21% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.22% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.23% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.24% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.24% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.24% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.25% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.26% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.30% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.31% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.34% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.35% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.35% , Global 100, IOO
-0.36% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.38% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.41% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.43% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.44% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.47% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.51% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.55% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.57% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.60% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.61% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.64% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.81% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.82% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.87% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.93% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.38% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.99% , India PS, PIN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1968.17, high of 6/24/14

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1907.61, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1823.54, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009