A 3year cycle points to an important low this summer in the U.S. dollar. At 3years, 3months, July seems like a good bet but it is possible the cycle low came two months early with the low in May. However, July is also an expected 13-month cycle low. A 95-day cycle low is due the final week in July.
Editor’s note: Carlson utilizes the work of George Lindsay—who focused as “time” as a key element in market analysis. Learn more about this methodology here.
A 2H’14 rally in the dollar should turn back any rally in commodities (yes, gold too – gasp!) until the secular bear market is finished near year-end. It also has the potential to turn up interest rates which has been the death knell for the previous two bull markets in 2000 and 2007.
Fig 1
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