* Latest Market Developments *
There were no major, markets-moving developments on the geopolitical front over the weekend, so the market place is starting to focus more on other matters such as the big U.S. economic data week that lies just ahead. The headliners include the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the key U.S. employment report on Friday. The U.S. second-quarter GDP report is also out on Wednesday. But the geopolitical tensions in the world have not just evaporated. The European Union is presently debating what kind of further sanctions to slap on Russia over its annexation of part of Ukraine and the ensuing complicity in the downing of a Malaysian jet airliner two weeks ago. Don’t be surprised to see geopolitics back on the front burner of the market place soon. Such would likely be bullish for gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. flash services purchasing managers index (PMI), pending home sales, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Geopolitics have moved off the front burner of the market place, for now.)
(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.
–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a record high last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,980.00 and then at the record high of 1,985.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,959.00 and then at 1,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 3,975.00 and then at last week’s 14-year high of 3,991.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,925.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading a bit. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 16,922 and then at 16,950. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 16,860 and then at 16,800. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138 24/32 and then at last week’s contract high of 138 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138 even and then at last week’s low of 137 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.10.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.02.5 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading on profit taking after hitting a 5.5-month high Friday. Bulls still have upside momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 81.200 and then at 81.300. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.000 and then at 80.800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $101.39 and then at last week’s low of $101.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on some short covering and perceived bargain hunting. There is generally dry weather in the Corn Belt forecast that does merit close attention, but is not yet threatening to the corn and soybean crops. Bears continue have the firm near-term technical advantage in the grain markets.
