U.S. Bonds, U.S. Dollar, and Largest Cap Stocks Gaining Strength, Industrial Stocks Losing Strength

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/29/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14, reconfirming a significant rally. Although OEF/SPY remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA, a shift in momentum appears to be at hand now. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 7/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 7/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/29/14 and remains systematically bearish.

Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 7/29/14, reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,969.95, down 0.45%) absolute price gapped higher on the open and worked further to the upside in the first 47 minutes. By the time it peaked at 10:17 am ET, SPX was moderately higher than its intraday highs of the previous 2 trading days. SPX reversed to the minus side by 11:08 am ET, recovered during lunch time, and fell again in the final 2 hours into a weak close. SPX closed below the open, below midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 7 trading days.

NYSE total volume rose 14% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 155, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD remain relatively weak. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 also remains relatively weak, well below its highs of June and July. It turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.

Stock market sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/16/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 7/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 7/28/14. BKF/SPY currently remains systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is now rising up toward the falling 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover is possible in days ahead.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 weeks on 7/28/14. EEM /SPY currently remains systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is now rising up toward the falling 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover is likely in days ahead.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14, reconfirming a significant rally. Although OEF/SPY remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA, a shift in momentum appears to be at hand now. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/29/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price has stayed systematically neutral most of the time since 7/9/14, when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a strong position, still rising above the 200-day SMA. Support 36.58, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD currently is systematically bullish, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA and with the price above both SMAs. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 7/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/24/14, possibly suggesting a minor pullback correction. SLV remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/24/14, possibly suggesting a minor pullback correction. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/16/14, but SLV/GLD is still weeks away from a bullish 50>200 SMA crossover.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.81% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
3.22% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
4.71% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
6.21% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
4.36% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.64% , T , AT&T Corp., T
2.83% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
3.87% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
7.10% , MAS , MASCO
4.21% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.65% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
3.05% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
2.43% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.34% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
3.15% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
2.46% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.49% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
0.76% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
1.48% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.06% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.09% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
1.52% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.79% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.47% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.65% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
1.53% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.04% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.96% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.47% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
0.48% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
1.01% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.59% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.94% , CR , CRANE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.30% , GLW , CORNING
-8.13% , ETN , EATON
-11.78% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-8.06% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-8.06% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-3.70% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-2.87% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-3.25% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-2.31% , CI , CIGNA
-3.47% , AET , AETNA
-1.96% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-2.49% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-4.42% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-1.44% , CL , COLGATE
-1.39% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.83% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.33% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-2.36% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.87% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.73% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.61% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-2.08% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-2.65% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-0.99% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.50% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.86% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.05% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-2.60% , HUM , HUMANA
-2.02% , PCAR , PACCAR
-0.52% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.95% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.80% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.99% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.28% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.22% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.01% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.84% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.55% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.48% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.47% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.43% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.36% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.36% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.27% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.22% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.16% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.15% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.13% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.08% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.04% , France Index, EWQ
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.10% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.13% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.13% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.15% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.15% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.16% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.17% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.18% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.18% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.19% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.20% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.21% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.21% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.21% , Global 100, IOO
-0.24% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.25% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.26% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.27% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.27% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.28% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.28% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.29% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.29% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.30% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.31% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.31% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.31% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.32% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.34% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.34% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.35% , Networking, IGN
-0.35% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.36% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.36% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.37% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.38% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.38% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.39% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.39% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.40% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.40% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.40% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.40% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.41% , Dividend International, PID
-0.41% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.41% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.42% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.43% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.43% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.44% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.44% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.45% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.45% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.45% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.46% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.47% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.47% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.48% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.48% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.49% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.49% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.50% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.50% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.50% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.51% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.52% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.52% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.52% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.55% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.56% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.57% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.60% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.62% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.65% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.66% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.66% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.67% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.68% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.72% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.75% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.76% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.82% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.88% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.89% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.91% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.91% , India PS, PIN
-0.92% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.93% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.93% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.94% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.98% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.99% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.17% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.25% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.31% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.39% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.51% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.05% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.36% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
1950.01, 50-day SMA
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1854.57, 200-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009