Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/21/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 years on 8/21/14, possibly signaling a renewal of its 5-year uptrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 8/21/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 8/21/14, thereby signaling a medium-term downtrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/21/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,992.37, up 0.29%) absolute price opened higher and worked further upward until the final hour before stabilizing. SPX closed above the (true) open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of all previous trading days.
NYSE total volume rose 2% to a level 20% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it is not even close to reversing months-long bearish divergences. On 8/21/14, short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new high for the &P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. On 8/7/14, RSI and MACD broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months, thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. RSI and MACD turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to rise to their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +323%, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside in early August, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. The price bounce that started on 8/8/14 is only a Minor Ripple to the upside, and such short-term price moves are ignored as insignificant noise, according to the Dow Theory.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/21/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/19/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/20/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 9 months and the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/20/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal–unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly to the upside, which appears unlikely at this time.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 35.62, 34.97, 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 8/21/14, thereby signaling a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, GLD appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 8/12/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming at 20.24 on 12/23/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/21/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below a 5-month trendline and fell further below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 8/14/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.66% , EBAY , EBAY
6.23% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
8.13% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
0.92% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
4.12% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
5.35% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.98% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.55% , C , CITIGROUP
2.48% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.11% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.56% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.00% , NCR , NCR
1.81% , QLGC , QLOGIC
2.39% , FHN , First Horizon National
1.69% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
1.51% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.57% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.61% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
1.59% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.36% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.49% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
1.56% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.88% , INTC , INTEL
0.74% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.95% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.38% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.34% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.31% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
1.18% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.62% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.49% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.73% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.45% , MET , METLIFE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.15% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-4.44% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-3.11% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.70% , MON , MONSANTO
-1.67% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.08% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.21% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.31% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.45% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.11% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-0.45% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.25% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.40% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.73% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.12% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.08% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.05% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-0.08% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.02% , WAT , WATERS
-0.89% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.94% , Italy Index, EWI
1.25% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.23% , Russia MV, RSX
1.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.11% , France Index, EWQ
1.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.99% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.98% , Spain Index, EWP
0.97% , Austria Index, EWO
0.95% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.94% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.92% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.89% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.85% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.78% , Networking, IGN
0.66% , Germany Index, EWG
0.66% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.65% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.63% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.61% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.60% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.60% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.56% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.53% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.52% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.50% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.49% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.49% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.48% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.48% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.47% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.47% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.47% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.44% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.42% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.40% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.40% , Global 100, IOO
0.39% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.38% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.36% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.34% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.34% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.32% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.30% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.29% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.29% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.28% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.28% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.28% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.27% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.27% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.26% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.26% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.25% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.25% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.25% , Canada Index, EWC
0.25% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.24% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.24% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.22% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.22% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.21% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.20% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.19% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.18% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.17% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.17% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.16% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.16% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.15% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.15% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.15% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.14% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.14% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.13% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.12% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.11% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.10% , Dividend International, PID
0.10% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.10% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.09% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.08% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.07% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.03% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Water Resources, PHO
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.00% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.04% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.04% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.05% , India PS, PIN
-0.05% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.07% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.09% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.09% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.09% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.09% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.12% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.14% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.14% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.15% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.16% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.31% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.32% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.33% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.37% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.42% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.42% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.54% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.61% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.74% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.78% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.03% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.08% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.31% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.32% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.33% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.87% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1959.79, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1871.84, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
