U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 11 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to rise to a new high to match the new high for the Transportation Average, for a Dow Theory non-confirmation and divergence.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/2/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/2/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 2,002.28, down 0.05%) absolute price opened higher on an upside gap but reversed to the downside after just 9 minutes. SPX held above Friday’s low and recovered most of the early loss in the afternoon. SPX closed below the (true) open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 25% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it is not even close to reversing months-long bearish divergences. On 8/25/14, short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. On 8/7/14, RSI and MACD broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months, thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. RSI and MACD turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to rise to their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +415, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
The S&P 500 rose 3.77% in August. It has closed higher 6 of the past 7 months. Over the past 26 months, it has closed lower on the month only 5 times, or 19% of the time, and it did not close lower 2 or more consecutive months. Clearly, the bullish majority has been eager to buy on price dips. Looking ahead, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century–but of course past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/29/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 11 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/20/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, GLD appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has turned choppy in recent weeks and remains systematically neutral. Absolute price has been systematically neutral most of this year, 2014.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/2/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price has been in a medium-term downtrend since it peaked at 41.18 on 7/3/14. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.26% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
0.75% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
8.13% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.26% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.71% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.79% , IGV , Software, IGV
6.25% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
4.79% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.74% , PCG , PG&E
0.47% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.41% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.82% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.33% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.31% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.24% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.31% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
2.65% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.47% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.84% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.21% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.18% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.79% , BLL , BALL
2.81% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.05% , MDP , MEREDITH
1.71% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.09% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
0.37% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.28% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.58% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
0.35% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.48% , FHN , First Horizon National
3.45% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.11% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.97% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.66% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-3.67% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-4.06% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.63% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.51% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-1.44% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.42% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-3.34% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.32% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.37% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-1.78% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-2.56% , CIEN.N , CIENA
-2.71% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.32% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.36% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.60% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.51% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-3.48% , NE , NOBLE
-1.52% , AES , AES
-1.00% , HUM , HUMANA
-2.17% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.66% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.77% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.39% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.75% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.83% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.88% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-2.08% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-2.14% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.70% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.97% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.83% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.54% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.31% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.21% , India PS, PIN
1.02% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.87% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.85% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.82% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.77% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.76% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.71% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.62% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.61% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.59% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.59% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.57% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.52% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.51% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.50% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.47% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.45% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.43% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.42% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.41% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.39% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.38% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.37% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.37% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.37% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.37% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.37% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.35% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.33% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.33% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.30% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.29% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.29% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.28% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.27% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.25% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.23% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.23% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.22% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.20% , Dividend International, PID
0.20% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.19% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.19% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.18% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.16% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.15% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.14% , Networking, IGN
0.14% , Germany Index, EWG
0.14% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.13% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.08% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.08% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.07% , Spain Index, EWP
0.07% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.06% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.05% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.04% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.04% , Water Resources, PHO
0.04% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.02% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.01% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.01% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.01% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.03% , Global 100, IOO
-0.03% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.05% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.05% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.05% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.07% , France Index, EWQ
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.10% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.11% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.12% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.13% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.16% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.18% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.19% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.21% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.23% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.27% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.27% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.28% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.29% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.31% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.34% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.34% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.34% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.35% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.37% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.40% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.40% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.45% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.45% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.48% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.50% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.54% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.57% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.57% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.70% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.70% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.75% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.81% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.83% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.85% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.85% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.88% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.90% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.97% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.97% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.12% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.21% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.27% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.32% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.32% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.44% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.51% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.60% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.66% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.78% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.95% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.25% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.71% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2006.12, high of 9/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1967.06, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1879.93, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
