The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 9/18/14.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/18/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 2,011.36, up 0.49%) absolute price opened higher and continued to rise. SPX finished at a new high close price and closed above the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 1% to a level 1% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
On 9/18/14, short-term price momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new closing price high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs for the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +115, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
The S&P 500 rose 3.77% in August. It has closed higher 6 of the past 7 months. Over the past 26 months, it has closed lower on the month only 5 times, or 19% of the time, and it did not close lower 2 or more consecutive months. Clearly, the bullish majority has been eager to buy on price dips. Looking ahead, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century–but of course past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/17/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/10/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/2/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 9/18/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/18/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 9/17/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 7 months on 9/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/18/14, thereby confirming its downtrend that started on 8/12/14. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/18/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend. Support 17.74, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend that started on 7/14/14. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
59.09% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
3.51% , FHN , First Horizon National
4.59% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
3.62% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
1.38% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.02% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
1.59% , KSS , KOHLS
1.63% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.76% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.37% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
1.69% , TGT , TARGET
0.37% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
2.35% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.62% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
1.29% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.58% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
2.58% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.68% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
4.28% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.72% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.92% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.86% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.42% , C , CITIGROUP
0.63% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.58% , MON , MONSANTO
1.00% , ORCL.K , ORACLE
1.05% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.52% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.84% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.23% , FLR , FLUOR
1.28% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.60% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.28% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.54% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-1.25% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.19% , YHOO , YAHOO
-2.50% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-5.28% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.36% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-1.14% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.25% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.69% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-0.43% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.18% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.82% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.60% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.75% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.29% , CVS , CVS
-1.10% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.89% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-1.40% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.79% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.62% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.08% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.51% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.42% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-1.10% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-0.61% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-1.58% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.36% , NI , NISOURCE
-0.37% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.67% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.28% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-0.39% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.58% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-0.52% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.13% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.92% , India PS, PIN
1.76% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.75% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.58% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.53% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.38% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.24% , Germany Index, EWG
1.23% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.09% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.98% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.97% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.95% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.93% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.93% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.91% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.90% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.88% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.86% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.85% , Networking, IGN
0.84% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.83% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.82% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.78% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.75% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.75% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.74% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.72% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.72% , Australia Index, EWA
0.69% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.69% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% , Global 100, IOO
0.68% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.67% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.66% , France Index, EWQ
0.65% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.64% , Spain Index, EWP
0.63% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.63% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.61% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.61% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.60% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.60% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.60% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.59% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.59% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.59% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.57% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.56% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.54% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.53% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.53% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.53% , Austria Index, EWO
0.53% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.52% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.52% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.51% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.50% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.49% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.48% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.48% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.47% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.47% , Dividend International, PID
0.47% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.47% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.46% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.45% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.45% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.45% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.44% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.38% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.37% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.36% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.35% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.34% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.34% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.34% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.27% , Water Resources, PHO
0.26% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.25% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.20% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.16% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.15% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.14% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.14% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.11% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.08% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.07% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.15% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.25% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.37% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.44% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.53% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.54% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.58% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.59% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.72% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.72% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.73% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.74% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.83% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.85% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.88% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.90% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.92% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.96% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.98% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.98% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.01% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.11% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.40% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.47% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.58% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2012.34, high of 9/18/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1974.52, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1891.93, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
