Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 5 years on 9/24/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/24/14 and remains systematically bullish.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/24/14, thereby confirming its downtrend that started on 8/12/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,998.30, up 0.78%) absolute price opened slightly higher but reversed to the downside after only 10 minutes. Within the first hour, SPX fell to test its intraday low of 1,978.48 set on 9/15/14. SPX held fractionally above that previous low, then rallied from 10:22 am to 3:28 pm ET before stabilizing into a firm close. SPX closed above the (true) open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 2 days.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 5% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
On 9/18/14, short-term price momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new closing price high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs for the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -67, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
The S&P 500 rose 3.77% in August. It has closed higher 6 of the past 7 months. Over the past 26 months, it has closed lower on the month only 5 times, or 19% of the time, and it did not close lower 2 or more consecutive months. Clearly, the bullish majority has been eager to buy on price dips. Looking ahead, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century–but of course past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/24/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/22/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 9/22/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 9/17/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 7 months on 9/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/24/14, thereby confirming its downtrend that started on 8/12/14. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/24/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.14% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
7.40% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
6.81% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
4.03% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
1.47% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.62% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
1.14% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
3.47% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
4.23% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.63% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.40% , SYY , SYSCO
1.18% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.24% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
1.29% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.94% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
2.52% , DD , DU PONT
1.84% , PLL , PALL
1.39% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.64% , LB , L Brands, LB
1.31% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.02% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
1.59% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.59% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
1.02% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
1.19% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
2.61% , TIF , TIFFANY
2.97% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.33% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.51% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.29% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.46% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
2.74% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.37% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.30% , KBH , KB HOME
-4.59% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.71% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.37% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.85% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-2.30% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.93% , NUE , NUCOR
-1.00% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.23% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.42% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-1.44% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.45% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.62% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.34% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.40% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.00% , PPL , PPL
-0.75% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.73% , CR , CRANE
-0.95% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.88% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.09% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.23% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.30% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.54% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-2.48% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.60% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-2.09% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.35% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-0.40% , FLR , FLUOR
-0.47% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.43% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.98% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.22% , APA , APACHE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.33% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.30% , Russia MV, RSX
1.94% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.79% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.75% , India PS, PIN
1.75% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.63% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.63% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.61% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.47% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.43% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.39% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.35% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.29% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.28% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.18% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.17% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.14% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.07% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.07% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.06% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.04% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.03% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.03% , Italy Index, EWI
0.97% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.94% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.93% , Australia Index, EWA
0.93% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.90% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.88% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.86% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.83% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.79% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.78% , France Index, EWQ
0.78% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.76% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.74% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.70% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.69% , Dividend International, PID
0.69% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.67% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.66% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.65% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.65% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.65% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.64% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.64% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.63% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.63% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.63% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.63% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.63% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.62% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.62% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.61% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.61% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.60% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.59% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.59% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.59% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.58% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.56% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.54% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.52% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.51% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.51% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.51% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.50% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.50% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.47% , Global 100, IOO
0.46% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.46% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.43% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.43% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.42% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.42% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.42% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.36% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.35% , Networking, IGN
0.33% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.32% , Germany Index, EWG
0.31% , Energy Global, IXC
0.31% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.30% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.28% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% , Water Resources, PHO
0.20% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.19% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.18% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.17% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.15% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.13% , Spain Index, EWP
0.09% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.07% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.07% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.05% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.05% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.02% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.09% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.10% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.11% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.13% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.16% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.21% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.23% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.23% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.24% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.28% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.30% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.32% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.36% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.40% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.42% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.43% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.47% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.47% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.48% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.55% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.60% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.79% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.00% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.09% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.19% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.44% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1978.48, low of 9/15/2014
1976.58, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1895.97, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
