Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its lows of the past year.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 11/10/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) rose to a new high, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend.
NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 3% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/10/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/3/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 11/10/14. The BKF/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 11/5/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/6/14. The EEM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 10/22/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/7/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years. Absolute price of EFA also remains systematically bearish, with the declining 50-day SMA falling further below the declining 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 years on 11/4/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 26.28 and 22.74. Resistance 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.32% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.75% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.43% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.44% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.81% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.29% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.78% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.75% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.42% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.66% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.68% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.12% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.34% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
0.43% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.41% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
0.31% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.30% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
3.31% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
1.59% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.51% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.48% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.88% , FISV , FISERV
0.54% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.32% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.37% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
1.09% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.19% , VFC , VF
1.68% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.70% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.29% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.85% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.25% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.43% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.99% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-7.88% , CIEN.N , CIENA
-2.85% , CR , CRANE
-7.67% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.11% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-0.11% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-2.09% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.32% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-0.30% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-2.46% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.85% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-3.31% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.69% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.96% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.89% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.42% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-2.55% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.78% , MBI , MBIA
-0.76% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-1.24% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.28% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.64% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.75% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.54% , Russia MV, RSX
1.35% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.34% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.07% , Spain Index, EWP
1.06% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.04% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.00% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.98% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.97% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.86% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.82% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.78% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.78% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.74% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.74% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.73% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.64% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.57% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.55% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.54% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.54% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.50% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.50% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.50% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.49% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.48% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.48% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.48% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.47% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.46% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.46% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.45% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.45% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.45% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.44% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.44% , France Index, EWQ
0.43% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.42% , Italy Index, EWI
0.41% , Germany Index, EWG
0.40% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.38% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.38% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.37% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.37% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.36% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.35% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.35% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.34% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.34% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.34% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.34% , Global 100, IOO
0.33% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.33% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.32% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.32% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.32% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.31% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.31% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.31% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.31% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.30% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.30% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.29% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.29% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.29% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.29% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.28% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.27% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.27% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.27% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.27% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.27% , Water Resources, PHO
0.27% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.26% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.25% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.25% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.24% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.24% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.24% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.23% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.23% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.22% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.21% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.15% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.06% , Austria Index, EWO
0.06% , Dividend International, PID
0.05% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.04% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Australia Index, EWA
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.05% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.24% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.25% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.27% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.27% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.33% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.35% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.39% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.41% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.46% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.50% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.58% , India PS, PIN
-0.82% , Networking, IGN
-0.87% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.90% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.92% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.92% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.96% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.98% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.00% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.08% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.10% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.15% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.19% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.25% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.41% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.58% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.22% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.93% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
