CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in early morning electronic dealings, on a corrective pullback following strong gains last week. Dollar index bulls still have near-term technical momentum. However, slow stochastics now show the DX as short-term overbought. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at 1.2600 and then heavier sell stops just below solid support at last week’s low of 1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2658 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics do show the Euro as being short-term oversold today, and due for a corrective bounce.
METALS
The metals are trading slightly lower in early morning dealings. A weaker U.S. dollar today should limit selling interest in the metals. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is $580.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at Friday’s low of $574.50. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $590.20 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $595.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading modestly lower in early electronic dealings. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of $71.30 and then at just above resistance at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at Friday’s low of $70.28, and then just below solid support at $70.00. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range–bound by key near-term support at last week’s low of $68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range–including multiple closes below it–would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight electronic trading, following good weekend rainfall over a good portion of the Corn Belt. The weather forecasts for this week are also bearish, with rains and lower temps predicted for the region. Trading this week will be more subdued ahead of Friday’s all-important USDA updated acreage reports.
