Wednesday, October 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply higher crude oil prices and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The big decline in the value of the dollar today is just so far profit-taking pressure in a still-solid uptrend in the greenback. Same thing with crude oil: Today’s big gains are so far just short covering in a bear market and the solid price downtrend on the daily chart is still in place for crude oil.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are modestly lower in early morning trading today, following big gains Tuesday. The bears do still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 914.50 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 939.80 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 903.25
1st Support:——– 863.50
2nd Support:——– 788.25
1st Resistance:—– 978.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,018.25

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,274.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,250.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,310.00 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,319.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,257.35
1st Support:—— 1,204.70
2nd Support:—— 1,101.35
1st Resistance:— 1,360.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,413.35

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,200 and then just above resistance at 9,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,114

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,781
1st Support:—— 8,463
2nd Support:—— 7,836
1st Resistance:— 9,408
2nd Resistance:— 9,726

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are mixed early today. Bulls are fading again.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 31/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 7/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 116 21/32
1st Support:—– 115 2/32
2nd Support:—– 114 9/32
1st Resistance:– 117 14/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 1/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 114 19/32
1st Support:—– 113 23/32
2nd Support:—– 113 8/32
1st Resistance:– 115 2/32
2nd Resistance:– 115 30/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today, on profit taking. No chart damage has occurred. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.50 and then at the overnight high of 87.11. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.00 and then at 85.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.02. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2700 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2615. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2777. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $759.30 and then at $765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $739.80 and then at the overnight low of $736.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $727.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today on short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $66.71 and then just above resistance at 67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.65 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and bargain-hunting buying. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe. Weekly high closes in corn and beans this week would give the bulls better confidence that harvest lows are in place and that prices can work higher into the end of the year.