Tuesday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I suspect that in many markets, price action will soon turn choppy and mostly non-trending. These markets included the grains, softs, Treasuries and even the stock indexes. The worldwide economic downturn has mostly been factored into markets’ price structure. Now, the heightened specter of uncertainty is likely to contribute to choppier trading conditions in many markets.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today. Bulls have gained near-term upside technical momentum recently.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 980.00 and then at the overnight low of 964.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,000.00 and then at 1,015.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 997.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 968.95
1st Support:——– 958.10
2nd Support:——– 946.65
1st Resistance:—– 980.40
2nd Resistance:—– 991.25
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the 1,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,340.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,400.00 and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,384.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,337.70
1st Support:—— 1,325.35
2nd Support:—— 1,309.20
1st Resistance:— 1,353.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,366.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,500 and then more stops just below support at 9,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,600 and then just above resistance at 9,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,296
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,312
1st Support:—— 9,243
2nd Support:—— 9,155
1st Resistance:— 9,400
2nd Resistance:— 9,469
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker early today. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113 even and then at 112 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 18/32 and then at 114 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 9/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 113 5/32
1st Support:—– 112 25/32 2nd Support:—– 112 6/32
1st Resistance:– 113 24/32
2nd Resistance:– 114 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.24.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the 113.08.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 113 17/32
1st Support:—– 113 5/32 2nd Support:—– 112 15/32
1st Resistance:– 114 7/32
2nd Resistance:– 114 19/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Still no serious chart damage has occurred recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.25 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.52 and then at 85.25. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.59. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2750 and then just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2850 and then at 1.2880. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2818. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $746.50 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $739.50 and then at $730.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $730.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $66.00 and then just above resistance at 67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $64.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture today, as crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. dollar is weaker. The bulls are working on market bottoms in corn and soybeans, but their progress has been tepid.
