Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA, however.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,951.27, up 0.09%) absolute price rose in the morning but surrendered most of the early gain in the afternoon. SPX closed above the open but modestly below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The S&P 500 scored another new high, although by only a very small amount. Some of the other indexes, such as the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 small caps, did not rise to new highs and continue to lag divergently.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 hit 99% on 6/6/14. That level signals an extremely overbought condition.
NYSE total volume fell 2% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 634 from 730 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index remain below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself. Therefore, both continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. The trends for the S&P 500 are obviously bullish in all time frames, but divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 6/2/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained in a weak position below the 200-day SMA since 12/17/12. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/9/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/3/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 5/23/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell to its lowest level in nearly 5 months on 5/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 11 months on 5/30/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA, however.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/6/14, turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.37% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
7.75% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.53% , CLX , CLOROX
4.97% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
3.65% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
6.16% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.60% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
4.91% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.61% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.78% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.55% , KEY , KEYCORP
1.52% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.57% , CMA , COMERICA
0.31% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.78% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
23.25% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.77% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.30% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.07% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
3.13% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.57% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.52% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.57% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.18% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
0.93% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
0.32% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.72% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.16% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.58% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.34% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.00% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.11% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-5.65% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.89% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.38% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.43% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.82% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-2.71% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.29% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-1.43% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.40% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-1.49% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.94% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-1.84% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-1.48% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.45% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.25% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.26% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.64% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.15% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.52% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.51% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.26% , ECL , ECOLAB
-0.07% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.07% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.46% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.34% , DD , DU PONT
-0.49% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-1.19% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-0.28% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.92% , INTC , INTEL
-0.19% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.48% , AES , AES
-0.21% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.16% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.99% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.77% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.52% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.28% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.27% , Water Resources, PHO
1.15% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.14% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.11% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.07% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.02% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.99% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.88% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.82% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.78% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.78% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.78% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.76% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.72% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.71% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.69% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.65% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.65% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.64% , Australia Index, EWA
0.62% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.59% , Spain Index, EWP
0.59% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.58% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.57% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.51% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.51% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.50% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.49% , Canada Index, EWC
0.47% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.47% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.44% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.44% , Italy Index, EWI
0.42% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.40% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.38% , Russia MV, RSX
0.37% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.36% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.36% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.34% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.33% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.32% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.32% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.31% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.31% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.30% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.29% , Networking, IGN
0.24% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.22% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.22% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.20% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.19% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.17% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.17% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.14% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.13% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.12% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.12% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.11% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.10% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.10% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.10% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.10% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.09% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.09% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.09% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.08% , Energy Global, IXC
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.07% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.06% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.05% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.05% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.04% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.03% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.03% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.03% , Dividend International, PID
0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.01% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.01% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.06% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% , Global 100, IOO
-0.08% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.08% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.08% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.10% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.11% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.11% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.12% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.14% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.14% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.14% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.14% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.15% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.17% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.18% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.18% , India PS, PIN
-0.18% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.20% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.20% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.20% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.21% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.23% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.23% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.26% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.28% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.35% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.37% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.40% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.46% , France Index, EWQ
-0.47% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.52% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.55% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.61% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.67% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.67% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.07% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.21% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.43% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1883.66, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1804.16, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
