Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price 50-day SMA is rising and nearing the 200-day SMA, and a bullish crossover appears likely so long as price stays firm or rises in days ahead.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Absolute prices of the following ETFs crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish):
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV)
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY)
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Small Cap Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1865.09, down 1.25%) absolute price opened higher on an upside gap but immediately reversed to the downside. By 2:46 pm ET, SPX had fallen below the intraday lows of the 3 previous trading days. Prices consolidated losses in the final 74 minutes. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closes of the 4 previous trading days.
The Nasdaq Composite Index (4,127.73) fell more than twice the S&P 500 loss, down 2.60%.
NYSE total volume rose 18% to a level 8% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 406 from 337 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have turned down again from lower peaks. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Although the S&P 500 closed at a new high on 4/2/14, neither the Nasdaq Composite Index nor the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high, suggesting non-confirmation.
The outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Non-confirmations, momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, with the Transportation Average setting higher highs and the Industrial Average setting lower closing price highs. Such divergence suggests that significant sectors are not in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the 2014 higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is moving down toward but remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The price 50-day SMA is rising and nearing the 200-day SMA, and a bullish crossover appears likely so long as price stays firm or rises in days ahead. Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.74, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price, trading in a range between 114.46 and 133.69 since 12/31/13, remains systematically neutral. Support: 123.11, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically bearish. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.66% , AVP , AVON
3.47% , BBY , BEST BUY
5.25% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.69% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.79% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.33% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.04% , EXC , EXELON CORP
1.13% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
1.19% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.02% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.11% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.10% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
1.26% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
0.93% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.97% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
1.53% , PCG , PG&E
1.03% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.42% , ETR , ENTERGY
0.53% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.66% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.97% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.54% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.67% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.84% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.56% , AES , AES
1.36% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.16% , WAT , WATERS
0.64% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
0.61% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
0.90% , SO , SOUTHERN
0.50% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.24% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.17% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.46% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-2.60% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.66% , QQQ.O , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-3.59% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-5.40% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-5.97% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-4.19% , YHOO , YAHOO
-4.11% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-5.92% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.83% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-2.83% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.79% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-5.14% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-4.02% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-3.30% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-2.39% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.77% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.73% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-3.18% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-4.90% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-7.83% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.36% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-4.50% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-2.31% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-6.30% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.98% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-2.63% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-4.04% , AMGN , AMGEN
-3.21% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.23% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-4.00% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-2.51% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-4.61% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.33% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.19% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.13% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.03% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.96% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.84% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.81% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.80% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.67% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.66% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.61% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.60% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.58% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.54% , Canada Index, EWC
0.53% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.49% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.47% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.46% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.46% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.42% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.40% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.40% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.38% , Russia MV, RSX
0.37% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.34% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.33% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.32% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.31% , Australia Index, EWA
0.23% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.11% , India PS, PIN
0.11% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.10% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.00% , Energy Global, IXC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.03% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.11% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.17% , France Index, EWQ
-0.17% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.18% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.18% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.20% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.21% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.22% , Dividend International, PID
-0.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.29% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.29% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.29% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.31% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.32% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.34% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.34% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.36% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.37% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.38% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.38% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.39% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.40% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.40% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.41% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.44% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.46% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.48% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.49% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.50% , Global 100, IOO
-0.55% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.62% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.65% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.67% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.69% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.71% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.73% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.78% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.80% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.80% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.81% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.85% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.88% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.88% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.90% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.98% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.99% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.99% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.02% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.15% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.18% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.19% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.19% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.19% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.19% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.20% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.22% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.23% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.27% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.36% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.37% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.37% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.42% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.43% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.45% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.46% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.53% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.62% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.64% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.65% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.66% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.66% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.69% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.71% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.79% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.82% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.84% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.89% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.91% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.93% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-2.01% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-2.25% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.27% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.31% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-2.35% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.56% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-2.60% , Networking, IGN
-2.66% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.67% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.77% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.83% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.94% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.06% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.19% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.21% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-4.11% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,897.28, high of 4/4/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1838.07, 50-day SMA
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1755.07, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
