Stocks: minor rally attempt on lower volume.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,773.43, up 1.24%) absolute price gapped higher on the open and worked upward most of the day, with only mild setbacks, into a strong close. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 3 days, suggesting a minor rally attempt.

The S&P 500 absolute price has remained systematically neutral below its 50-day SMA since 1/24/14. It closed below its closing prices of the previous 15 weeks on 2/3/14, thereby confirming a downside correction.

NYSE total volume fell 4% to a level 9% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 31, which is a modest improvement from the negative numbers recorded over the past 2 weeks. Negative readings mean that there are more New Lows than New Highs, and that indicates a bearish trend. This indicator gave early warning of a downside reversal: the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 was far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to a new high for the S&P 500 large-capitalization stock price index as of 1/15/14.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD have fallen persistently since 12/31/13 to their lowest levels in 14 months on 2/3/14, thereby indicating bearish momentum and bearish divergence relative to the S&P 500. In addition, both oscillators gave early warning of downside risk by demonstrating weakness relative to the S&P 500 price index itself for many months. Both failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 1/15/14.

Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 2/3/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 2/3/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 2/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/31/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. SLV has traded in a range between 18.26 and 19.69 since November. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.84, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.38% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.35% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
3.73% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
9.09% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
6.12% , AZO , AUTOZONE
5.43% , NBR , NABORS
1.03% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
5.28% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
3.45% , KSS , KOHLS
7.76% , SNA , SNAP ON
1.93% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.90% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
3.43% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.52% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
1.52% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
5.67% , ALL , ALLSTATE
5.30% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
3.32% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
3.88% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
3.61% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
8.22% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.36% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
1.33% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
4.23% , LB , L Brands, LB
2.86% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
2.29% , ALTR , ALTERA
3.81% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
3.39% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
2.79% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.70% , KR , KROGER
2.95% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.43% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.35% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.33% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-4.01% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.48% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.06% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.69% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.58% , FISV , FISERV
-0.57% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.51% , AET , AETNA
-0.90% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-1.32% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.15% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.07% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.25% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.18% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.58% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.31% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.36% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-2.53% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.73% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.07% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.20% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.18% , AON , AON
-0.04% , PEP , PEPSICO
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.73% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.28% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.05% , Italy Index, EWI
3.03% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.79% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.67% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.66% , Spain Index, EWP
2.52% , Australia Index, EWA
2.49% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.48% , India PS, PIN
2.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.45% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.30% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.29% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.14% , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.14% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.11% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.09% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
2.05% , France Index, EWQ
2.03% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.99% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.98% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.94% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.91% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.90% , Germany Index, EWG
1.89% , Russia MV, RSX
1.89% , Energy Global, IXC
1.84% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.83% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.81% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.79% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.78% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.77% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.75% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.75% , Networking, IGN
1.73% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.73% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.66% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.66% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.65% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.61% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.59% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.58% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.57% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.57% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.55% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.54% , Global 100, IOO
1.53% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.53% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.53% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.52% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.50% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.50% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.49% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.46% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.43% , Austria Index, EWO
1.43% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.39% , Dividend International, PID
1.39% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.38% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.38% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.37% , Canada Index, EWC
1.36% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.35% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.33% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.33% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.32% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.32% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.32% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.31% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.31% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.29% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.28% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.28% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.28% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.27% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.27% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.26% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.24% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.22% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.22% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.22% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.20% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.20% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.17% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.16% , Water Resources, PHO
1.15% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.12% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.12% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.11% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.07% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.07% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.03% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.01% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.99% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.98% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.96% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.94% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.89% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.88% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.83% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.80% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.80% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.79% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.74% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.73% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.73% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.72% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.56% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.55% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.54% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.40% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.36% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.20% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.02% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.10% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.19% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.43% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.65% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.06% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.28% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1809.46, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1710.36, 200-day SMA
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009