Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) bell below its 50-day SMA on 12/12/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows on the NYSE fell below zero on Thursday 12/12/13, thereby turning bearish: that is, there were fewer New Highs than New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its highs of October, May, and January as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in November, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,775.50, down 0.38%) absolute price opened slightly lower on Thursday and fell to a 19-day intraday low at 12:24 pm ET. An afternoon recovery lifted the SPX to the positive side and lasted about 2.5 hours. Prices fell again in the final hour, retracing most of the afternoon rally. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below its closing price lows of the previous 19 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE fell below 8-weeks’ lows on Thursday, after crossing below its 50-day SMA on Tuesday 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below 5-weeks’ lows on Thursday, after crossing below below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Both indicators have remained below their highs of September-October, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs in late November.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 fell below their lows of the previous 8 weeks on Thursday 12/12/13. These oscillators have been trending lower after stalling out below their October highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in November. Previously, both remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below first half 2013 highs as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in July, August, September, and October.
Momentum divergences, breadth divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory last reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/27/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 14 months on 12/10/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/12/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/2/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 14 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/5/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The price 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 12/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/6/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.28, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.66% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
4.35% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.61% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
4.96% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
3.37% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.90% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.68% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.48% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.44% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
1.23% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.44% , FISV , FISERV
4.56% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.64% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.77% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.51% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
0.34% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.13% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.89% , AEE , AMEREN
0.78% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
0.43% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.24% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
1.47% , CMA , COMERICA
0.65% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.47% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.65% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.13% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.33% , VFC , VF
1.96% , BBT , BB&T
1.40% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.46% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.13% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
1.17% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
1.96% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.58% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-6.94% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-2.85% , TER , TERADYNE
-3.28% , AES , AES
-1.62% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.06% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-2.24% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-2.66% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-1.02% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.79% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.20% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.78% , ORCL.K , ORACLE
-0.36% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.93% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.75% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-1.69% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-2.33% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.80% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.87% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.08% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.95% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.82% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-1.98% , SYY , SYSCO
-1.36% , CLX , CLOROX
-2.85% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.61% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.54% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.29% , KO , COCA COLA
-2.69% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.72% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-2.09% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-0.29% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.91% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.53% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.61% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.50% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.49% , Water Resources, PHO
0.48% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.45% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.42% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.34% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.34% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.33% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.29% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.26% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.25% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.22% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.22% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.20% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.18% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.17% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.16% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.16% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.16% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.10% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.10% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.10% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.08% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.07% , Russia MV, RSX
0.07% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.07% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.06% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.04% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.03% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.01% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.00% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.00% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% , Energy Global, IXC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.02% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.03% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.11% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.11% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.13% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.15% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.15% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.17% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.18% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.18% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.18% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.18% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.20% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.20% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.21% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.21% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.22% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.23% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.24% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.26% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.28% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.29% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.31% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.31% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.32% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.33% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.34% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.35% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.35% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.36% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.37% , France Index, EWQ
-0.37% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.38% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.39% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.43% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.44% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.46% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.48% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.50% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.51% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.52% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.53% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.56% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.56% , Dividend International, PID
-0.57% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.58% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.58% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.60% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.64% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.65% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.65% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.66% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.67% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.67% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.67% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.69% , Global 100, IOO
-0.69% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.70% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.72% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.73% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.74% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.75% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.75% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.76% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.77% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.77% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.80% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.82% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.82% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.89% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.93% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.95% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.96% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.02% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.02% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.08% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.09% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.09% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.20% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.29% , Networking, IGN
-1.37% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.48% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.62% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.86% , India PS, PIN
-1.87% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.04% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.13% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.40% , Australia Index, EWA
-3.79% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1759.81, 50-day SMA
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1663.00, 200-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
