Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically neutral, from bullish.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically bearish, from neutral.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.
US political “news” continues to whipsaw the markets mercilessly…
“‘Tis a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” according to political observer William Shakespeare.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,698.06, down 0.71%) absolute price opened lower on Tuesday and fell further for 13 minutes before reversing to the upside. SPX rose above its highest intraday price levels of the previous 16 trading days at 11:25 am on hopes for a political deal. SPX then reversed direction again, falling below its morning lows on fears of no political deal. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and near its lowest level of the day.
The SPX trend still looks uncertain for the short-term, day-to-day trend and no better than neutral for the medium term, since its May high. Momentum divergences, shrinking volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and politics remain major obstacles to a sustainable upside trend.
NYSE total volume rose 19% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on Tuesday and is now systematically neutral again. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE declined but remains systematically bullish, above 50- and 200-day day SMAs. Both continue to lag the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index. When the S&P 500 closed above its closing price highs of the previous 16 trading days on Monday 10/14/13, neither indicator was able to rise above its highs of the previous 16 trading days. This was another demonstration of bearish divergence, which does not support probabilities of a sustainable stock market uptrend.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The day-to-day Minor Ripple trend has turned uncertain since.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral on 8/26/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA price has been in a cyclical bear market since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. In addition, DBA has been in a secular bear market since peaking at 43.50 on 2/27/2008.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 19.88, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.08% , FDX , FEDEX
5.28% , X , US STEEL CORP
4.63% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
4.09% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.55% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.70% , WPO , Washington Post
1.30% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.40% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.81% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
2.31% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.59% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.39% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
1.58% , OMC , OMNICOM
1.53% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.59% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
0.41% , NUE , NUCOR
0.20% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.26% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.65% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.12% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.10% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.12% , APA , APACHE
0.12% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.11% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.67% , NCR , NCR
0.10% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
0.14% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.03% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.03% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.02% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.08% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
0.03% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-18.39% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-8.89% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-6.23% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.58% , IGV , Software, IGV
-3.17% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.47% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.77% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-2.91% , EMC , EMC
-1.93% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-3.40% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.99% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.61% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.92% , ETN , EATON
-2.26% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-2.28% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.47% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.79% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.32% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.79% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.05% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.82% , YHOO , YAHOO
-2.22% , MAS , MASCO
-2.06% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.53% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.07% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.41% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.33% , TIF , TIFFANY
-1.62% , NBR , NABORS
-1.91% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.45% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-1.49% , C , CITIGROUP
-2.83% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.65% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.73% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.69% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.47% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.29% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.26% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.20% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.08% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% , Spain Index, EWP
0.02% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.07% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.11% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.12% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.15% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.17% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.20% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.27% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.27% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.28% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.28% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.29% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.31% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.31% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.32% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.32% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.34% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.35% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.35% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.35% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.35% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.36% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.36% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.36% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.37% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.37% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.39% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.39% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.40% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.41% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.41% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.51% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.51% , France Index, EWQ
-0.53% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.53% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.55% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.57% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.59% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.59% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.60% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.61% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.61% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.61% , Global 100, IOO
-0.61% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.64% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.64% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.64% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.64% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.66% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.67% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.68% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.69% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.69% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.70% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.70% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.70% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.71% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.73% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.73% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.73% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.74% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.75% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.75% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.75% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.76% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.76% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.78% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.78% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.79% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.79% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.79% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.80% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.80% , Dividend International, PID
-0.81% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.81% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.81% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.81% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.82% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.82% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.82% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.84% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.84% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.84% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.85% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.86% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.87% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.87% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.87% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.88% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.88% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.89% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.90% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.91% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.92% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.94% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.95% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.96% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.96% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.96% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.96% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.97% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.97% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.98% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.99% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.00% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.02% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.02% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.03% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.04% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.05% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.06% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.08% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.09% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.11% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.12% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.20% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.40% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.42% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.48% , Networking, IGN
-1.91% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.07% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.59% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.67% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.97% , India PS, PIN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1678.24, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1605.09, 200-day SMA
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
