Rising volume on a price decline is bearish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/2/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.

The U.S. Stock Market rose in the morning on Tuesday–but it surrendered all of its gain in the afternoon. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,614.08) finished lower by 0.05%, after again testing but failing to overcome resistance at its 50-day SMA, now at 1623.94.

NYSE Volume rose 2% from Monday’s level as the S&P 500 price reversed to the downside. As old hands always say, “Volume goes with the trend,” or confirms the trend. So, falling volume on a price advance is bearish, and rising volume on a price decline is bearish. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE turned down and remained below its 50-day SMA.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE turned down and remained below its 50-day SMA.

From the low of 1,560.33 on 6/14/13 to the high of 1,626.61 on 7/1/13, the S&P 500 retraced a typical 50% of its recent decline from 5/22/13 to 6/24/13, based on intraday extreme prices. That would be a normal retracement for a counter trend bounce on declining volume.

On Monday, 6/24/13, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest closing price in 8 weeks, since 4/22/13. It fell 5.76% from 5/21/13 to 6/24/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 24 trading days. The magnitude and duration of the price decline is probably telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.

The bullish majority had been taking encouragement from the SPX and other major stock price indexes holding support at or near their widely-followed 50-day SMAs. Now that that support not only has been violated but also has become resistance, SPX could fall further to test its 200-day SMA, now at 1512.24 and rising a fraction of a point every day.

A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage probably signals a significant downside correction, or possibly worse. In any case, caution seems warranted.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/20-6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, thanks to sideways movement since 4/18/13. Longer term, for more than a year from 4/10/12 to 4/18/13, QQQ underperformed SPY. Given that longer term trends have more proven staying power than shorter term trends, there is a very good chance that the longer term downtrend will resume.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/2/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/27/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) is currently systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is currently systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price has sagged moderately lower since stalling out on 5/22/13.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is currently systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.34% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
8.33% , X , US STEEL CORP
5.03% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
3.61% , KR , KROGER
4.19% , FHN , First Horizon National
3.19% , LOW , LOWES
4.65% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.16% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
2.80% , F , FORD MOTOR
2.37% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.63% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.91% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.56% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.75% , KSS , KOHLS
0.64% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.15% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
0.66% , AVP , AVON
1.45% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.67% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.55% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.09% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
1.02% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
1.90% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
1.60% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.51% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.14% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.27% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
0.65% , ZION , ZIONS
1.24% , CMA , COMERICA
0.54% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
0.76% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.42% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.39% , PMR , Retail, PMR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.70% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-5.88% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-3.04% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-3.33% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.67% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.63% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.11% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.64% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.74% , PX , PRAXAIR
-2.32% , HAR , Harman International
-1.77% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.95% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-0.31% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.45% , AET , AETNA
-1.40% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.21% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.94% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.64% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-1.89% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-5.73% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-0.44% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.94% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-2.05% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.26% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.13% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.47% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.89% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.58% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.19% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-0.19% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.07% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.33% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.96% , ITT , ITT INDS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.60% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.60% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.56% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.53% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.17% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.73% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.70% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.70% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.47% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.45% , Australia Index, EWA
0.40% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.35% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.32% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.32% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.28% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.27% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.24% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.23% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.22% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.18% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.17% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.17% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.16% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.14% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.14% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.13% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.13% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.11% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.11% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.10% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.09% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.05% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% , Energy Global, IXC
0.05% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.04% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.04% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.03% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.02% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.03% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.05% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.06% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.08% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.09% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.10% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.11% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.12% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.12% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.13% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.14% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.14% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.15% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.15% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.17% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.19% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.19% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.21% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.21% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.24% , Dividend International, PID
-0.25% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.25% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.25% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.26% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.28% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.29% , Global 100, IOO
-0.31% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.31% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.32% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.32% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.33% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.33% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.35% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.36% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.36% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.37% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.38% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.43% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.44% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.50% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.51% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.52% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.52% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.54% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.54% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.56% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.58% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.59% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.60% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.60% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.62% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.63% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.64% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.67% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.67% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.69% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.75% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.82% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.89% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.89% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.91% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.97% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.03% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.04% , Networking, IGN
-1.05% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.07% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.09% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.17% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.21% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.23% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.23% , France Index, EWQ
-1.28% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.31% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.33% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.39% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.42% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.46% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.47% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.57% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.68% , India PS, PIN
-1.70% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.79% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.87% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.92% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.00% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.13% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.25% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.33% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1623.94, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1512.24, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009