U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/6/13 when it crossed below the 50-day SMA.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/6/13 when it crossed below the 50-day SMA.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 5/6/13, when it crossed below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA.
U.S. stocks opened slightly higher, chopped around for a couple of hours, then rallied from 11:34 a.m. to 2:22 p.m. ET. Prices then drifted moderately lower into the close but still managed to hold most of their gains from the previous close.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,617.50) finished up 0.19% at a new high close, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.42% to a 12-year high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased lower by 0.03%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.27% to a new high.
NYSE total volume fell 16% to a level 8% below its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Breadth was positive, with 2,343 Advances and 1,634 Declines. In addition, Advancing/Declining Volume was positive, with 2.2 billion Advancing Stock Volume to 1.1 billion Declining Stock Volume.
A variety of stock market price momentum indicators continue to show bearish divergences, while investor sentiment has been at bullish extremes most of the year. My interpretation of the technical indicators suggests that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident from November may be overdone, and the stock market seems overdue for a significant downside correction.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/23/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. EFA price confirmed the uptrend by rising above the highs of the previous 21 months on 5/3/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 5/1/13. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/6/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 4/18/13. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/3/13.
Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly for many weeks and months while most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Daily price momentum oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 64.91 on 5/6/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. And MACD(12,26,9) peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13 but was only 13.50 on 5/6/13. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs, and the Bullish Percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 in Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends failed to rise to higher highs in April and May, 2013. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/26/13, when it whipsawed back down below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/29/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 139.78 135.85, and 130.51. 142.55. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 21.96, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/24/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/1/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
45.37% , MBI , MBIA
6.33% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
5.23% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
4.75% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
5.69% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.58% , XRX , XEROX
5.35% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
5.52% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
6.04% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
3.20% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
4.87% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
3.08% , LOW , LOWES
1.32% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.08% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.76% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.15% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
1.38% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.35% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.55% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.47% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.77% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
2.56% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.82% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
0.59% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
1.81% , FDX , FEDEX
0.11% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.71% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.66% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
1.09% , C , CITIGROUP
1.72% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.40% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.88% , F , FORD MOTOR
4.04% , TXT , TEXTRON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.59% , PCG , PG&E
-0.17% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-0.45% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.32% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.11% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-1.73% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.95% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.21% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.24% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.39% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.73% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.22% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.01% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.30% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.13% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.48% , ED , CON ED
-0.17% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.06% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-0.76% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.10% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.33% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.69% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.38% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.36% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.24% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.21% , Networking, IGN
1.06% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.04% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.00% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.99% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.94% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.92% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.79% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.76% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.71% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.68% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.68% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.68% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.66% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.64% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.64% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.63% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.63% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.59% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.58% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.55% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.55% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.55% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.53% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.52% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.51% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.51% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.51% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.49% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.49% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.48% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.48% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.48% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.48% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.46% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.46% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.44% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.44% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.40% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.40% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.39% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.39% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.39% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.39% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.38% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.37% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.35% , Energy Global, IXC
0.35% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.34% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.32% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.32% , Canada Index, EWC
0.29% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.28% , Austria Index, EWO
0.28% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.26% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.26% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.24% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.24% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.22% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.20% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.14% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.14% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.13% , Water Resources, PHO
0.13% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.13% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.11% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.11% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.10% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.09% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.06% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.00% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.04% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.06% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.06% , Dividend International, PID
-0.07% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.12% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , France Index, EWQ
-0.13% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.13% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.13% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.13% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.14% , Global 100, IOO
-0.15% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.16% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.16% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.16% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.17% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.18% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.21% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.21% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.22% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.23% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.23% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.25% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.27% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.28% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.30% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.37% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.40% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.42% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.45% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.47% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.48% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.49% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.53% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.55% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.63% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.63% , India PS, PIN
-0.65% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.72% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.73% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.86% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.86% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.26% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.39% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1619.77, intraday high of 5/6/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1559.99, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1465.42, 200-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
