Technology stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 16 months, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.
The Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above previous highs, but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average stubbornly remained below its 2012 highs, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,472.34 ) finished nearly unchanged again on Tuesday, up by only 1.66 points or 0.11%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC: 3,110.78) fell 6.72 points or 0.22%. It was another in a series of mixed and indecisive trading days.
NYSE trading volume rose 13% to a level that was still 6% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1419.17, 50-day SMA
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1393.41, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.32, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.14, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.36, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains systematically neutral. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.50% , QLGC , QLOGIC
4.72% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
3.01% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.34% , MBI , MBIA
5.38% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.48% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
2.94% , JWN , NORDSTROM
4.03% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
4.35% , AVP , AVON
2.95% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
7.16% , DELL , DELL
2.63% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.28% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.71% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.32% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
1.81% , KSS , KOHLS
1.47% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.76% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.97% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.79% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.46% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.88% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.41% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.76% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.91% , HUM , HUMANA
0.26% , IGV , Software, IGV
3.34% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.23% , FAST , Fastenal Company
2.04% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.91% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.65% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.46% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.07% , NBR , NABORS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.93% , FISV , FISERV
-0.88% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.02% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.27% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-0.87% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.83% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.12% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.02% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.72% , ED , CON ED
-0.71% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-1.93% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.46% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-3.16% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.40% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.69% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.51% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-1.42% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.43% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.36% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.76% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.47% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.70% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.41% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.03% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.08% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.08% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.83% , TER , TERADYNE
-0.41% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-0.13% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.40% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.14% , PPL , PPL
-0.74% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-0.13% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.93% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.88% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.76% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.76% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.73% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.69% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.69% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.63% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.62% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.61% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.61% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.56% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.56% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.54% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.52% Energy DJ, IYE
0.51% Networking, IGN
0.50% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.50% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.49% Italy Index, EWI
0.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.48% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.47% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.47% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.46% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.46% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.46% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.45% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.45% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.43% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.42% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.42% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.42% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.41% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.41% Energy Global, IXC
0.41% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.40% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.39% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.39% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.37% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.37% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.36% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.36% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.27% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.27% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.26% India PS, PIN
0.25% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.25% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.25% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.25% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.24% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.21% Belgium Index, EWK
0.21% Canada Index, EWC
0.19% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.18% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.16% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.16% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.10% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.07% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.06% Dividend International, PID
0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.06% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.03% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.02% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.04% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.06% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.07% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.08% Australia Index, EWA
-0.08% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.08% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.09% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.09% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.09% Global 100, IOO
-0.09% Water Resources, PHO
-0.12% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.15% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.15% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.15% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.16% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.19% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.22% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.25% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.26% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.26% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.28% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.30% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.30% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.31% Spain Index, EWP
-0.31% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.32% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.32% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.35% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.36% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.38% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.43% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.43% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.49% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.50% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.54% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.54% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.54% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.55% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.59% France Index, EWQ
-0.59% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.63% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.65% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.70% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.80% Russia MV, RSX
-0.85% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.87% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.88% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.02% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.03% Austria Index, EWO
-1.15% Germany Index, EWG
-2.01% South Africa Index, EZA
