Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing since 8/3/12.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in days ahead.

Utilities stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12 when its 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA. XLU/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price broke down below 12-week lows on 9/18/12.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment shows that stock market newsletter advisors are even more bullish. As of 9/19/12, there were 54.2% Bulls and 24.5% Bears. This 54.2% Bulls is the highest percentage of Bulls since 2/15/12 and the second highest since 54.9% Bulls on 5/4/11, just 2 days after the SPX peak for 2011.

Investor sentiment data indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rise above their 2012 market highs. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,461.05) rose 1.73 points or 0.12% on Wednesday, recovering nearly all of Tuesday’s minor loss.

RSI(14) for the SPX rose slightly. RSI remains in the overbought zone that has marked previous stock market highs. Now at 70.64, RSI(14) is nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

NYSE volume rose 2% to a level 9% below its 200-day SMA. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Over the past 3 months, those who gambled on Fed and ECB threats to print money have won. But that does not mean that stock prices will continue to rise now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12 when its 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA. XLU/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price broke below 12-week lows on 9/18/12. Price remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained consistently above its 200-day SMA since 8/18/10. Support: 36.00, 35.56, 35.29, 34.14, 33.18, 31.94, 29.45, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance: 37.09, 37.62, 38.54, 41.98, and 44.66.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1399.28, 50-day SMA
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1351.97, 200-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. TLT closed below its 50-day SMA on 9/5/12, turning systematically neutral. TLT whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 9/19/12. TLT”s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 123.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing since 8/3/12. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 8/3/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.06, 172.23, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 9/18/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support 32.77, 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.13% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
3.89% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
3.48% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
5.08% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
3.35% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.93% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.33% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.82% , PMR , Retail, PMR
2.45% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.64% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.52% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
4.22% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.34% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
4.34% , GCI , GANNETT
1.88% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
4.25% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.63% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
2.36% , MON , MONSANTO
0.15% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.29% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
4.07% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.61% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.18% , GLW , CORNING
0.88% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.73% , MAS , MASCO
4.09% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.19% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.01% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.61% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.50% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.98% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.53% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
1.54% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.94% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.76% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-4.08% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.42% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.52% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-3.68% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.88% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.94% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.24% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.74% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-1.97% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-2.08% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.42% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.42% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-3.61% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.17% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-1.69% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-1.68% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.44% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.99% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-1.59% , APA , APACHE
-1.20% , DELL , DELL
-0.41% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.18% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-1.24% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-0.72% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.79% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-0.66% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.41% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.97% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.72% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.99% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-1.23% , INTU , INTUIT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.76% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.64% China 25 iS, FXI
1.20% Sweden Index, EWD
1.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.01% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.98% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.94% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.91% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.75% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.70% Australia Index, EWA
0.67% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.66% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.66% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.56% Water Resources, PHO
0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.54% France Index, EWQ
0.54% Italy Index, EWI
0.53% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.52% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.49% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.49% Mexico Index, EWW
0.48% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.47% Germany Index, EWG
0.45% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.44% India PS, PIN
0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.42% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.42% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.41% Spain Index, EWP
0.40% European VIPERs, VGK
0.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.34% Global 100, IOO
0.34% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.33% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.30% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.30% South Korea Index, EWY
0.30% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.30% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.29% Singapore Index, EWS
0.29% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.28% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% Networking, IGN
0.27% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.27% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.27% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.27% Japan Index, EWJ
0.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.24% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.24% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.24% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.21% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.21% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.20% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.19% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.19% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.18% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.17% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.16% Belgium Index, EWK
0.15% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.15% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.13% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.12% Austria Index, EWO
0.12% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.11% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.10% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.10% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.09% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.08% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.08% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.08% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.07% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.06% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.03% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.02% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.01% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.01% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.01% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.01% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% Canada Index, EWC
-0.04% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.04% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.06% Dividend International, PID
-0.07% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.09% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.12% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.12% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.12% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.13% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.14% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.17% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.18% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.22% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.25% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.26% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.32% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.33% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.38% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.39% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.42% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.46% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.46% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.46% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.52% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.56% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.59% Energy Global, IXC
-0.60% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.60% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.62% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.75% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.88% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.88% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.94% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.97% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.46% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.11% Russia MV, RSX
-3.94% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.08% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO