By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold ended the week at 1620.25 moving up but staying within a trading range. Directional movement in Gold prices has been limited for a number of reasons. Physical interest in the metal has been weak; as has investment interest and policy-makers in the EU have managed to stabilize the situation in Europe, even if they have not come up with a solution to the problem yet.
All of which, suggests the market is in limbo waiting for fresh developments. There has been little eco data or news to support any movement. Rumors and hopes of monetary stimulus and a bit of risk aversion are all that has been propping up gold
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
1620.25 |
1616.85 |
1626.85 |
1606.35 |
0.20% |
|
Aug 09, 2012 |
1616.95 |
1613.05 |
1618.85 |
1610.15 |
0.24% |
|
Aug 08, 2012 |
1613.15 |
1611.25 |
1617.25 |
1603.95 |
0.11% |
|
Aug 07, 2012 |
1611.35 |
1612.15 |
1619.15 |
1609.05 |
-0.06% |
|
Aug 06, 2012 |
1612.25 |
1606.25 |
1616.05 |
1604.25 |
0.38% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
|
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-30.3 |
-30.8 |
-29.6 |
|
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
0.1% |
1.4% |
||
|
Aug 7 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
406.5B |
365.1B |
|
|
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
-1.4% |
-1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-2.9% |
-4.0% |
1.2% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
-1.7% |
-0.9% |
0.7% |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
-0.7% |
||
|
Aug 8 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-17 |
-4 |
-8 |
|
EUR |
German 10-y Bond Auction |
1.42|1.8 |
1.31|1.5 |
||
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
|
Aug 9 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-10.1B |
-8.5B |
-8.4B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
|
Aug 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
0.0% |
0.4% |
-2.1% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
1.3% |
1.4% |
-2.9% |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1457.33 over this period
Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
3.7% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index q/q |
0.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
|
|
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
3.3% |
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
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