By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY started the week at 78.21 and finished the week at 78.26 trading virtually in a small tight range. The USD has remained locked under the 78.50 price almost for two weeks. The USD fluctuated on rumors and hopes of monetary stimulus and on positive eco data.
Whereas the JPY faced a week of poor eco reports and the BoJ decision to hold rates and policy.
There can be no reason to support the JPY at this time, but it seems to remain even with the USD.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
78.26 |
78.59 |
78.64 |
78.16 |
-0.42% |
|
Aug 09, 2012 |
78.59 |
78.42 |
78.79 |
78.30 |
0.22% |
|
Aug 08, 2012 |
78.42 |
78.62 |
78.64 |
78.24 |
-0.24% |
|
Aug 07, 2012 |
78.61 |
78.21 |
78.74 |
78.16 |
0.50% |
|
Aug 06, 2012 |
78.21 |
78.62 |
78.62 |
78.15 |
-0.51% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-0.8% |
-1.1% |
|
|
NZD |
Labor Cost Index q/q |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
|
Aug 7 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
JPY |
Current Account |
0.77T |
0.75T |
0.28T |
|
|
Aug 8 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
1.3% |
2.1% |
-0.9% |
|
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
|
NZD |
Employment Change q/q |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.5% |
6.7% |
|
|
JPY |
Core Machinery Orders m/m |
5.6% |
11.1% |
-14.8% |
|
|
Aug 9 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
14.0K |
10.2K |
-28.3K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
|
|
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
<0.10% |
<0.10% |
<0.10% |
|
|
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
||
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010
Average: 82.77 over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 13 |
13th-14th |
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
0.3% |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Core Retail Sales q/q |
-2.5% |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m |
0.7% |
|
|
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
3.7% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index q/q |
0.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
3.3% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
|
22:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input q/q |
0.3% |
|
|
Aug 17 |
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
Click here to read USD/JPY Technical Analysis.
