The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,394.23) rose 3.24 points or 0.23% on Monday. SPX rose above its highs of the previous 12 weeks–but various technical indicators again failed to confirm.

NYSE volume fell 17%, suggesting waning enthusiasm behind the price up move and calling into question the strength of demand behind it. On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains in a downtrend with bearish divergence. Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks is weak relative to price. Volume is not confirming the price up move.

Various short-term momentum oscillators, such as RSI and Stochastic, failed to rise above June-July highs to confirm the higher high for the S&P 500.

While the S&P 500 Composite Price Index has recovered nearly 80% of its April-June loss, both the percentage of these same 500 stocks that are above their 200-day SMAs and the percentage in bullish Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends have recovered only about half of their losses. They are failing to confirm the price strength in the S&P 500.

Technical market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1391.74, high of 7/30/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1342.95, 50-day SMA
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
13232.01, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing since late June but still may be weeks away from the 2 SMAs meeting. A trend of rising food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.84, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.32% , BBY , BEST BUY
18.82% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.93% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
1.26% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.39% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
10.97% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
6.30% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.96% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
5.62% , X , US STEEL CORP
2.39% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
3.28% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
3.20% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.38% , UIS , UNISYS
0.89% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
12.34% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.91% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
4.54% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.77% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.54% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.85% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
3.01% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
3.43% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.40% , IGV , Software, IGV
2.46% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.64% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.30% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.15% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.00% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
4.05% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.77% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.58% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
0.74% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.37% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.41% , AES , AES
-8.95% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.82% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.96% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.83% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.34% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.61% , MBI , MBIA
-2.25% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.20% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.43% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.10% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.77% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-0.69% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-0.64% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.26% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.92% , ALTR , ALTERA
-1.30% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.56% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.24% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.19% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.94% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.14% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.53% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.47% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.30% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.27% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.69% , PX , PRAXAIR
-0.34% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.46% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.57% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.31% , LOW , LOWES
-0.77% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-1.92% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.05% Spain Index, EWP
3.81% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.60% Networking, IGN
2.53% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.51% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.02% Italy Index, EWI
1.77% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.55% Russia MV, RSX
1.54% Belgium Index, EWK
1.48% Austria Index, EWO
1.37% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.32% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.28% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.94% Dividend International, PID
0.92% France Index, EWQ
0.91% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.91% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.87% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.86% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.85% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.82% Germany Index, EWG
0.80% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.80% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.79% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.77% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.76% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.73% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.73% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.72% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.71% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.71% EAFE Index, EFA
0.70% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.70% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.68% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.67% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.66% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.66% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.66% European VIPERs, VGK
0.64% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.63% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.63% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.63% South Korea Index, EWY
0.61% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.60% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.59% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.58% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.56% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.55% China 25 iS, FXI
0.54% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.54% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.53% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.52% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.52% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.52% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.48% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.48% Global 100, IOO
0.48% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.47% India PS, PIN
0.47% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.46% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.41% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.40% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.40% Energy Global, IXC
0.39% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.36% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.34% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.33% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.32% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.32% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.32% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.30% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.30% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.29% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.28% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.28% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.28% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.25% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.25% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.23% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.23% Canada Index, EWC
0.21% Water Resources, PHO
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.20% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.19% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.19% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.18% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% South Africa Index, EZA
0.17% Energy DJ, IYE
0.17% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.14% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.13% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.12% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.07% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.07% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.07% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.04% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.04% Sweden Index, EWD
0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Australia Index, EWA
0.00% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.07% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.09% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.10% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.10% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.17% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.24% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.24% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.28% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.30% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.30% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.30% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.44% Mexico Index, EWW