The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,265.43) traded higher most of Tuesday before surrendering all but 0.01% of its gain in the final 53 minutes of trading.
It was the 5th consecutive up day for the SPX. Stocks are overbought.
Although the 5-day price trend is up, a bearish divergence in short-term momentum is warning of a reversal of that trend.
Trading volume fell 9%, its 4th consecutive down day. Volume is not confirming the price uptrend.
SPX crossed above its widely-followed 200-day SMA (now at 1259.03) on Friday, 12/23/11. That was the 3rd time SPX crossed above since SPX crossed below on 8/2/11. Historically, most such crossover signals result in unprofitable whipsaws for trend followers. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
Financial stock sector turned down following a 4-day bounce. Financials have been leaders on the downside.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years.
Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care stock sector ETFs rose above previous price highs, looking back to July 2011. These “Defensive” sectors have been the strongest sectors for many months.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned upward from support at its 50-day SMA, following a minor 4-day price pullback.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) bounced to the upper end of its 6-week trading range, where it may find resistance.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) gapped sharply lower on 12/27/11, leaving behind a bearish Island Reversal. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA and crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled either an upward Secondary Reaction bounce or Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/23/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 144 calendar days. This appears to be one of those junctures when interpretation of the Dow Theory could be open to debate. Significantly, these higher highs were NOT confirmed by the broad-based, capitalization-weighted price indexes. And given that Friday 12/23/11 was a low-volume day with many investors taking off for holidays, there may be some probability of a false signal. Let’s wait for broader confirmation before making any big changes.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 6-months on 12/23/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/27/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/27/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/27/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been correcting and consolidating since peaking on 4/5/11. Short term, IWM/SPY firmed modestly from 10/3/11 to 10/27/11 but has stalled out in more recent weeks. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/11/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 12/21/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 12/22/11, hitting 20.34 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.37, high of 12/27/2011
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1259.03, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned upward from support at its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11, following a minor 4-day price pullback. TLT remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 117.62, 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) found support above its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11, following a minor 4-day price pullback. IEF remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 104.25, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.68 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned choppy/sideways since making a low on 10/4/11, when it broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has turned choppy/sideways since making a low on 9/30/11. TIP/IEF remains below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) stabilized following a minor 4-day pullback. UUP rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.31, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.70, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) bounced moderately within its major downtrend over the past 6 trading days. Price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) bounced to the upper end of its 6-week trading range on 12/27/11, where it may find resistance. Price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks to 35.73 on 12/16/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/11. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. Further weakness appears probable. Support: 151.71, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 157.53, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.70, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/27/11. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) gapped sharply lower on 12/27/11, leaving behind a bearish Island Reversal. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA and crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.94% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.19% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.95% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
6.86% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.49% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.48% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.95% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
2.75% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.27% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
3.21% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.48% , TIF , TIFFANY
1.13% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
2.42% , GPS , GAP
0.95% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.57% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.63% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.97% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.96% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
1.04% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.48% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.35% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.75% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.31% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.66% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.95% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.69% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.81% , K , KELLOGG
0.64% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.36% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.51% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.05% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
0.86% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-27.20% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-8.93% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-8.99% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.85% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.27% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.45% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.09% , RTH , Retail H, RTH
-5.60% , WAG , WALGREEN
-2.05% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.25% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.34% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.61% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-2.90% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.50% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.75% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-2.52% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.68% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.64% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.45% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.56% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-3.28% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-0.89% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.24% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.06% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.12% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.63% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-1.11% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.35% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-1.31% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.21% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.47% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.68% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.06% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.48% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.47% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.05% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.86% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.77% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.69% Networking, IGN
0.65% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.53% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.48% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.48% South Africa Index, EZA
0.46% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.45% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.44% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.38% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.37% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.37% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.32% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.32% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.32% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.31% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.31% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.30% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.29% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.29% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.28% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.26% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.26% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.24% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.23% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.23% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.23% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.23% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.20% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.20% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.20% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.19% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.19% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% Water Resources, PHO
0.17% Energy DJ, IYE
0.16% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.16% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.16% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.15% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.14% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.11% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.11% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.08% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.08% Energy Global, IXC
0.07% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.06% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.05% Germany Index, EWG
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.03% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.03% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.02% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.05% France Index, EWQ
-0.05% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.07% Dividend International, PID
-0.07% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.08% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.11% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.12% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.12% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.12% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.15% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.18% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.18% Australia Index, EWA
-0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.25% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.25% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.26% Global 100, IOO
-0.27% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.27% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.28% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.30% Spain Index, EWP
-0.34% Canada Index, EWC
-0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.36% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.36% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.37% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.42% Austria Index, EWO
-0.45% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.47% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.52% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.52% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.54% India PS, PIN
-0.57% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.58% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.61% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.65% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.70% Russia MV, RSX
-0.71% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.73% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.74% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.75% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.76% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.77% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.80% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.86% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.89% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.90% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.91% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.95% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.99% Italy Index, EWI
-1.09% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.16% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.24% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.25% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.31% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.32% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.45% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.50% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.61% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.93% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.41% South Korea Index, EWY
