Ending 3-Weeks, Counter-trend Corrections

Many Markets Appear to be Ending 3-Weeks, Counter-trend Corrections.

S&P 500 turned down from 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,229.05) fell 25.14 points or 2.00% on Tuesday, October 25, 2011.

SPX closed below the closes of the previous 2 trading days on slightly higher trading volume.

Short-term Price Momentum turned bearish on 10/25/11 following days of bearish divergences.

As of Monday 10/24/11, SPX appeared to find resistance after recovering 61.8% of its loss from its May high to its August low. The 3-weeks, short-term upside correction was entirely within normal and expected ranges for a counter-trend minor Ripple bounce.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,229.05) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1274.41, 200-day SMA
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high

S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,229.05) Potential Support
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price close rose above the closes of the previous 9 trading days on 10/25/11, suggesting an end of a 15-day downside short-term correction. Longer term, TLT rose above all-time highs on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 113.05, 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 116.82 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price close rose above the closes of the previous 11 trading days on 10/25/11, suggesting an end of a downside short-term correction. Longer term, IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 102.52, 102.05, and 101.67. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned down on 10/25/11 following a 3-weeks bounce. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose slightly on 10/25/11, extending a 3-weeks bounce. Longer term, TIP/IEF broke down below the lows of the previous 13-months on 9/30/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend. This bearish long-term trend means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 10/24/11, reconfirming its preexisting short-term downside correction. Support 21.42 and 20.84. Resistance 21.91 and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 10/25/11, extending a 3-weeks bounce. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.49, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 10/25/11, suggesting an end of a downside short-term correction. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 167.48, 170.32, 172.20, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) > price rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 10/25/11, suggesting an end of a downside short-term correction. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.62, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke out above 4-weeek highs on 10/25/11, suggesting a short-term bounce. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 10/24/11, suggesting a short-term upside correction. JJC broke down below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/5/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
31.37% , UIS , UNISYS
10.83% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
5.05% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.91% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.92% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
2.84% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.54% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
4.94% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.74% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.71% , MAS , MASCO
1.43% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.74% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
1.60% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
3.32% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
3.88% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.20% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
2.25% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.19% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.51% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.90% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
1.39% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
0.23% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
1.80% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.43% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.25% , XRX , XEROX
0.33% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.39% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.35% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.71% , DOV , DOVER
0.20% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
0.49% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.46% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-24.21% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.94% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-34.90% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.12% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.58% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-3.07% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.89% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-2.12% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-12.84% , SLM , SLM CORP
-8.13% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-2.32% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.33% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.19% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-2.50% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-4.84% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-6.25% , MMM , 3M
-9.57% , X , US STEEL CORP
-7.34% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.77% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-8.77% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-11.79% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-4.40% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.31% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-2.23% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-3.09% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.40% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.75% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-6.06% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-5.07% , CMI , CUMMINS
-4.89% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-4.87% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.99% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.89% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.05% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.84% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.54% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.25% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.19% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.90% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.86% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.51% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.49% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.35% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.33% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.23% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.16% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.35% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.36% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.47% India PS, PIN
-0.96% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.06% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.11% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.12% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.16% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.18% Germany Index, EWG
-1.18% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.24% Austria Index, EWO
-1.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.33% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.38% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.40% Energy Global, IXC
-1.44% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.44% Dividend International, PID
-1.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.49% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.53% Global 100, IOO
-1.54% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.54% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.56% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.58% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.58% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.59% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.63% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.65% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.66% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.67% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.69% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.72% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.73% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.74% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.74% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.75% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.75% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.76% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.76% Canada Index, EWC
-1.77% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.77% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.79% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.80% Italy Index, EWI
-1.80% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.82% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.84% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.84% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.85% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.87% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.88% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.89% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.89% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.90% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.90% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.90% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.90% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.91% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.93% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.94% Spain Index, EWP
-1.95% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.95% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.97% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.98% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.98% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.99% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.99% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-2.00% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.02% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.03% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.04% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.04% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.09% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.12% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.12% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.13% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.14% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.18% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.18% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.20% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.21% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.26% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.27% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.32% France Index, EWQ
-2.35% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.36% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.43% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.46% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.48% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.58% Networking, IGN
-2.59% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.60% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.64% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.64% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.69% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.69% Australia Index, EWA
-2.70% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.71% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.75% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.77% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.79% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.81% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.81% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.85% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.87% Water Resources, PHO
-2.98% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.99% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.00% Russia MV, RSX
-3.17% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.17% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.82% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.06% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.84% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE