Stocks: Nothing More Than a Minor Ripple Against the Primary Tide

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,224.58) rose 20.92 points or 1.74% on Friday, October 14, 2011.

The 9-day price bounce has been the biggest in months, but “no tree grows to the sky”.

SPX is at the top end of its 10-week trading range (1074.77 to 1230.71, intraday) and well below its falling 200-day SMA (now at 1276.00). (SMA is an abbreviation for Simple Moving Average.)

Cumulative daily lines for both breadth (advances minus declines) and volume (volume of advancing stocks minus volume declining stocks) are lagging price, which is a bearish divergence. (Charts are in my subscription report.)

Sensitive price momentum indicators turned moderately higher on Friday but were well below their peaks on Monday 10/10/11. So, there is a bearish price momentum divergence for the very short term, which could lead to a price pullback in days ahead.

The Dow Theory signaled nothing more than an upward Ripple on 10/14/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 10 weeks. Ripples are the very minor day-to-day fluctuations that are of concern only to short-term traders and not at all to Dow Theorists. Much more significantly, the Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.46% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.29% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
3.14% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
2.33% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
3.91% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
9.63% , HAR , Harman International
1.93% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.76% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
5.42% , DYN , DYNEGY
2.54% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.81% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.44% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.86% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
2.40% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.94% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.06% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.17% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.30% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
2.06% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.80% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
0.97% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.28% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
1.67% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.99% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
2.62% , PWER , POWER ONE
4.65% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.47% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
5.85% , GOOG , Google
0.94% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.52% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
3.47% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
3.27% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.02% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.27% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-5.17% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.56% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.86% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.83% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.98% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.82% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.32% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.55% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.74% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.71% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.57% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.50% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-0.16% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-0.21% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.23% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-0.19% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.07% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.09% , NI , NISOURCE
-0.15% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.06% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.32% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.52% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.15% Russia MV, RSX
4.00% Energy SPDR, XLE
3.88% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
3.80% Energy DJ, IYE
3.77% Energy VIPERs, VDE
3.74% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.61% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
3.46% Energy Global, IXC
3.27% Italy Index, EWI
3.07% Sweden Index, EWD
3.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.85% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
2.66% South Korea Index, EWY
2.64% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.63% Networking, IGN
2.61% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.53% Canada Index, EWC
2.40% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.38% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.33% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.31% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
2.28% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.22% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.21% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.17% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.06% Australia Index, EWA
2.04% India PS, PIN
2.02% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.01% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.99% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.98% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.96% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.93% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.90% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.90% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.88% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.87% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.86% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.86% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.84% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.82% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.82% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.82% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.81% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.81% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.80% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.80% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.80% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.79% Singapore Index, EWS
1.79% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.78% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.77% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.76% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.76% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.74% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.73% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.73% European VIPERs, VGK
1.72% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.71% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.71% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.71% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.65% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.63% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.62% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.60% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.59% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.58% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.56% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.56% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.53% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.48% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.48% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.47% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.45% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.42% Mexico Index, EWW
1.41% Germany Index, EWG
1.37% France Index, EWQ
1.37% Belgium Index, EWK
1.36% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.35% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.34% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.34% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.32% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.30% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.29% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.28% Global 100, IOO
1.28% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.26% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.20% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.19% Austria Index, EWO
1.17% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.16% EAFE Index, EFA
1.16% Dividend International, PID
1.15% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.15% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.15% Water Resources, PHO
1.14% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.10% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.07% Spain Index, EWP
1.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.05% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.05% China 25 iS, FXI
1.02% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.97% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.96% South Africa Index, EZA
0.95% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.95% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.95% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.94% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.92% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.91% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.85% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.79% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.78% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.70% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.68% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.61% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.43% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.35% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.32% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.30% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.15% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.46% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.50% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.79% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.45% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT