S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,265.42) fell 22.45 points or 1.74% to a new 12-week low. Volume rose 17% on the NYSE to confirm the significant downtrend.

NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) absolute prices closed below 12-week lows and 200-day SMAs.

The Largest Cap S&P 100 absolute price closed below its 12-week lows and its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil broke down below the lows of the past 4 months, signaling a significant downtrend.

John Paulson’s $9 billion Advantage Plus hedge fund is down 19.65% in 2011, according to wsj.com. There is a strategy that gained in May and June, while most other strategies lost; see:
The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.36% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
3.64% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
4.27% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.97% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.54% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.04% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.58% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.36% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.82% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.47% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.82% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.64% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.14% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.58% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
1.76% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.20% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.55% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
1.20% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.61% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.37% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.42% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.30% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.29% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.09% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.07% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
0.25% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.01% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.87% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.24% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-4.10% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.90% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-3.02% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-3.65% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.27% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.52% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.43% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.81% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.73% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-4.94% , MET , METLIFE
-3.89% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.95% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-3.56% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-2.58% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.51% , DIA , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-3.01% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-2.89% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-4.29% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-3.26% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-2.27% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.99% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.46% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.92% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-3.48% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-5.05% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.94% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.70% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.17% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-3.24% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-3.05% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength — Now available by subscription:
The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, is below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, is below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio entered a downside correction since peaking on 1/18/11 and fell below 12-week lows on 6/13/11. Absolute price closed below its 12-week lows and its 200-day SMA on 6/15/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price closed below its 12-week lows and its 200-day SMA on 6/15/11.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) broke down further below 4-month lows on 6/13/11 and has been in a downside correction since 4/5/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below 13-week lows on 6/13/11. The Ratio set an all-time high on 4/5/11. Price also fell below 13-week lows.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the past 4 months on 6/15/11, signaling a significant downtrend. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed hedge-fund and other money managers increased net long positions in Oil–which could prove to be bearish when this hot money rushes for the exits. On 5/3/11, when Crude Oil was 111.56, I wrote, “Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 5/3/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback.” Support 94.63, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 103.39, 104.60, 105.16, 114.83, 115.27, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price recovered slightly on 6/15/11, but that does not change the short-term downtrend. Gold broke down below 2-week lows on 6/13/11, confirming a short-term downtrend. On 6/9/11, when Gold was 1542.7, I noted that the Gold “price appears to have stalled out since 6/6/11. Gold’s 5-week countertrend bounce might be weakening. Reward/Risk does not appear attractive. It seems possible that Gold has finally topped out at 1577.4 after rising 132% from 681 in October, 2008.” Support: 1462.5, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1577.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell further below 27-month lows on 6/13/11. The Ratio has been falling steeply since 4/8/11 and remains bearish.

Silver nearest futures contract price rose slightly on 6/15/11, but that does not change the short-term downtrend. Silver broke down below 3-week lows on 6/13/11, reconfirming a downside correction. Silver fell 35% from 49.82 on 4/25/11 to 32.3 on 5/12/11, breaking down below 10-week lows. On 5/2/11, when Silver was 46.084, I wrote, “Silver nearest futures contract price broke sharply below the lows of the previous 2 weeks. The short-term price trend has turned down. If this downtrend continues, it could have implications for inflation expectations.” Support 32.3, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.845, 39.38, 39.47, 49.82, 49.845 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11. Although the Ratio has stabilized somewhat since making a low on 5/16/11, it probably remains bearish.

Copper nearest futures contract price has been choppy/sideways for the past few weeks. Longer term, Copper broke down below previous 5-month lows on 5/12/11, confirming an intermediate-term correction, if not a bear market. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook. Support 3.9505, 3.8535, 3.846, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.2125, 4.402, 4.533, 4.554, 4.6495, 4.6535, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose more on 6/15/11 than it fell on 6/14/11, calling into serious question the apparent short-term trend break on Tuesday. Intermediate-term, the Bond rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 6/1/11, reconfirming a significant uptrend. In its favor, nearly everyone has been talking bearish on Bonds this year, so the Bond is rising up off an extreme oversold condition. Support 123.23, 123.18, 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.10, 127.19, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) broke down further below 6-month lows on 6/13/11. Absolute price of JNK broke down below 8-month lows on 6/13/11. Both confirm a bearish trend for JNK.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 6/10/11, again reconfirming a significant downtrend. TIP/IEF entered a downtrend after peaking on 4/8/11. This downtrend means that fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Inflation expectations are still waning.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price jumped sharply higher, closing above the highs of the past 2 weeks on 6/15/11. This is a bullish indication for the short-term trend. In addition, the larger trend of the USD has been firming since making the low at 73.325 on 5/2/11. Support 73.88, 73.515, 73.325, 72.86, and 70.80. Resistance 76.54, 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 40.9% Bulls versus 22.6% Bears as of 6/8/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This is near normal, since the Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.64. Note that Advisory Service Sentiment as of 4/6/11 rose to 3.65, its highest level in the 8 years since the 20-year high of 3.74 set on 6/18/03. The market has been working off that excess by correcting to the downside.

VIX Fear Index rose above 3-month highs to 21.32 on 6/15/11, indicating a relatively modest uptick in fear. For comparison, there was a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.

On 5/2/11, when the S&P 500 Composite (SPX) was 1,358.59, I warned, “The majority of major stock price indexes opened higher on gaps but reversed to close with losses on the day. This may signal exhaustion of the short-term uptrend. Sentiment indicators have been suggesting that the stock market may be over loved and overbought. And in view of the sharp reversals in the metal commodities, the so-called “inflation trade”, when speculators buy stocks and sell fixed-income instruments based on expectations of rising price levels for goods and services, may be on thin ice.”

Based on the daily SPX, momentum indicators gave bearish divergence warnings in April; that is, they never made it back to their February peaks when the price indexes rose to higher highs. These bearish divergence warnings are still in effect.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,265.42) fell 22.45 points or 1.74% to a new 3-month low. Volume rose 17% on the NYSE to confirm the significant downtrend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1346.82, high of 5/19/11
1294.70, low of 4/18/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.82% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.08% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.61% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.55% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.52% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.30% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.25% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.14% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.38% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.42% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.53% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.80% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.87% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.95% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.03% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.04% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.23% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.27% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.35% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.36% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.40% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.40% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.40% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.41% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.41% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.42% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.49% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.49% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.50% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.50% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.51% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.51% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.52% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.52% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.53% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.55% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.55% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.58% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.60% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.60% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.61% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.62% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.64% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.64% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.65% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.65% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.65% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.66% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.67% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.68% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.69% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.70% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.71% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.72% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.72% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.73% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.74% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.75% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.75% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.77% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.77% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.78% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.78% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.78% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.78% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.79% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.81% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.82% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.82% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.83% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.83% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.83% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.86% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.87% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.88% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.90% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.91% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.92% Water Resources, PHO
-1.96% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.97% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.98% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.99% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.02% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.03% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.05% Canada Index, EWC
-2.05% Dividend International, PID
-2.07% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.07% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.14% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.15% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.16% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.25% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.26% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.27% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.27% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.31% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.33% Global 100, IOO
-2.40% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.43% Russia MV, RSX
-2.46% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.49% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.50% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.51% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.60% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.61% Networking, IGN
-2.67% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.70% India PS, PIN
-2.76% Australia Index, EWA
-2.78% Energy Global, IXC
-2.80% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.83% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.87% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-3.29% EAFE Index, EFA
-3.32% Germany Index, EWG
-3.34% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.47% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.48% Austria Index, EWO
-3.61% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.65% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.70% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.81% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.89% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.94% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.01% France Index, EWQ
-4.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.84% Sweden Index, EWD
-4.95% Spain Index, EWP
-4.99% Italy Index, EWI