The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,316.14) rose 7.27 points or 0.56% on Friday, July 15, 2011. SPX fell 27.66 points or 2.06% for the week.

SPX whipsawed back above its widely-watched 50-day SMA. SPX also held above its 20-day SMA. In addition, price momentum indicators show some slowing of downside momentum. Although these indications suggest that some attempt to bounce could be possible, the bullish case seems less than compelling. For the medium term, a complex Dow Theory Secondary Reaction probably is still unfolding during the historically weak, “Sell in May, and go away” season.

Gold rose above previous all-time price highs, confirming a major long-term uptrend.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating with a small Flag pattern since peaking on 7/11/11 at 127.15. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish, and a slowing economic growth rate is bullish for bond prices.

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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.94% , CLX , CLOROX
0.57% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
12.98% , GOOG , Google
9.95% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.16% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
8.00% , NBR , NABORS
2.77% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
4.63% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
3.00% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
4.55% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
3.59% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
2.88% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
1.46% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
4.58% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.68% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
3.31% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
0.56% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.53% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.89% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.27% , FHN , First Horizon National
4.19% , EP , EL PASO
2.80% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
6.11% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.22% , CL , COLGATE
3.02% , APA , APACHE
2.06% , CHD , Church & Dwight
1.11% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.48% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.52% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.20% , GCI , GANNETT
2.65% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.93% , EBAY , EBAY
2.62% , DV , DeVry, Inc.

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.23% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-2.54% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.64% , C , CITIGROUP
-2.27% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.23% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-2.17% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-1.01% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-1.72% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.14% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-1.00% , FISV , FISERV
-0.72% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-0.40% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-0.34% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-0.44% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-1.05% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.84% , STT , STATE STREET
-1.13% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.77% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-0.88% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.45% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.25% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.51% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-0.56% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-1.51% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.80% , AON , AON
-0.88% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.13% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.46% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.66% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.62% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.78% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.93% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-0.80% , PFE , PFIZER
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9 Major U.S. Stock Sectors
ranked in order of long-term relative strength
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 7/12/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price rose to test its yearly highs on 7/7/11 but failed and turned down.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/14/11, suggesting a minor recovery. But OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming its preexisting bearish long-term major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) suddenly reversed to the downside on 7/14/11–this just after IWM/SPY rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/13/11. Although IWM/SPY appears uncertain about the short term, longer term the trend remains bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price has been trading trendless, choppy/sideways for most of the past 2 months. Many day-to-day reversals make Oil a risky market to trade at this time. Long term, as long as Oil holds above its June low of 90.17, the major trend might turn back up. Support 93.55, 93.45, 90.17, 89.61, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 99.42, 103.39, 104.60, 105.16, 114.83, 115.27, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/15/11, confirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money. Support: 1478.3, 1462.5, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 7/15/11, confirming a short-term bounce. GDX fell below 27-month lows on 6/17/11, which was a bearish indication for the long term. The Ratio is still down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish. GDX has established a clear bearish divergence relative to GLD, and that normally should be taken as a warning about prospects for GLD, Gold futures, Gold bullion, and Gold coins.

Silver nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 7/14/11, suggesting a short-term minor price uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation. Support 34.81, 33.38, 32.3, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.825, 39.40, 39.47, 49.82, 49.845 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 7/15/11, confirming a short-term minor uptrend. The Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11 and fell below the lows of the previous 4 months in 6/27/11, reconfirming a more significant downtrend for the medium term.

Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated recent price gains last week. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 4.3145, 4.0505, 4.0240, 3.9505, 3.8725, 3.8535, 3.846, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.4565, 4.533, 4.554, 4.6350, 4.6495, 4.6535, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating with a small Flag pattern since peaking on 7/11/11 at 127.15. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish, and a slowing economic growth rate is bullish for bond prices. Support 122.05, 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 127.15, 127.19, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/12/11, confirming a minor downtrend. JNK/LQD broke down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11, confirming a major downtrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 7/11/11, and the TIP/IEF Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 6/20/11. This downtrend means that fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears neutral and choppy for the short term. USD rose above the highs of the previous 16 weeks on 7/12/11, reconfirming a more significant, medium-term rally attempt. Longer term, USD has stabilized since making a low at 73.325 on 5/2/11. That stabilization appears to be base building for a more significant upside reversal. Support 74.505, 73.88, 73.515, 73.325, 72.86, and 70.80. Resistance 77.175, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 44.1% Bulls versus 22.6% Bears as of 7/13/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 1.95, which suggests moderate bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.

VIX Fear Index collapsed below the lows of the previous 8-weeks, plunging to 15.12 intraday on 7/1/11, in a surprisingly rapid swing to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.

As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,316.14) rose 7.27 points or 0.56% on Friday, July 15, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1306.51, low of 7/14/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.90% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.80% Energy DJ, IYE
2.69% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.68% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.19% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.08% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.74% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.54% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.53% Energy Global, IXC
1.46% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.26% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.25% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.24% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.17% Canada Index, EWC
1.15% Water Resources, PHO
1.14% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.10% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.09% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.05% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.03% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.00% South Africa Index, EZA
0.99% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.97% Russia MV, RSX
0.95% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.94% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.89% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.89% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.89% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.87% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.84% Belgium Index, EWK
0.78% Germany Index, EWG
0.76% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.76% Japan Index, EWJ
0.75% Networking, IGN
0.74% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.72% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.71% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.70% India PS, PIN
0.67% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.64% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.63% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.63% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.63% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.63% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.62% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.62% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.61% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.61% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.59% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.58% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.57% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.57% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.57% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.56% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.56% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.56% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.54% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.53% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.53% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.52% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.51% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.49% South Korea Index, EWY
0.49% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.48% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.47% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.43% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.43% Austria Index, EWO
0.41% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.40% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.40% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.38% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.38% Dividend International, PID
0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
0.36% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.34% EAFE Index, EFA
0.34% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.32% China 25 iS, FXI
0.31% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.29% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.28% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.26% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.25% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.24% European VIPERs, VGK
0.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.23% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.22% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.20% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.20% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.20% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.17% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.15% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.15% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.08% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.08% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.08% France Index, EWQ
0.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.06% Italy Index, EWI
0.06% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Global 100, IOO
0.02% Mexico Index, EWW
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.04% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.13% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.15% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.15% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.33% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.37% Spain Index, EWP
-0.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.50% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.51% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.57% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.60% Australia Index, EWA