Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/3/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,924.24, down 0.04%) absolute price opened lower and traded choppy most of the day. An afternoon recovery erased nearly all of the morning loss. SPX closed above the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 fell slightly but is still above 98%, which signals an extremely overbought condition.
Divergences continue. The NASDAQ Composite fell 0.07% and the small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 0.24%–both continue to underperform the S&P 500.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 232 from 479 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs in 2014 to confirm price. Both continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. The trends for the S&P 500 are obviously bullish in all time frames, but divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/2/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 6/2/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained in a weak position below the 200-day SMA since 12/17/12. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 254.48 on 4/4/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/3/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 5/23/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell to its lowest level in nearly 5 months on 5/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 11 months on 5/30/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.39% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
3.76% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.86% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
1.50% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
4.01% , SVU , SUPERVALU
2.74% , MET , METLIFE
1.96% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
2.64% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.22% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.36% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
2.39% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
1.18% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.15% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
0.28% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
2.73% , KMX , CarMax
1.83% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.12% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
1.47% , INTC , INTEL
0.81% , QLGC , QLOGIC
0.86% , FISV , FISERV
1.17% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
0.91% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.86% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
1.81% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.55% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.84% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.20% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.95% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.72% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.67% , F , FORD MOTOR
0.89% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
0.47% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.78% , FHN , First Horizon National
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.93% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-5.90% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-3.28% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-2.17% , CR , CRANE
-0.50% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-3.91% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.33% , SPLS , STAPLES
-2.43% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.66% , CSX , CSX
-1.55% , BCR , C R BARD
-1.35% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-1.21% , BMS , BEMIS
-4.29% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.53% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.41% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-1.69% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.77% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.18% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.33% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.85% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.30% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.24% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.79% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.68% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.79% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.69% , APA , APACHE
-1.14% , MDP , MEREDITH
-0.34% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.25% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.57% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.56% , DD , DU PONT
-1.52% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.62% , GOOG , Google
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.81% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.11% , Russia MV, RSX
1.04% , India PS, PIN
0.94% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.91% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.89% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.73% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.72% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.68% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.63% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.60% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.57% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.56% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.52% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.47% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.44% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.44% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.41% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.38% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.38% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.37% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.35% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.35% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.35% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.33% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.33% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.32% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.30% , Energy Global, IXC
0.29% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.26% , Canada Index, EWC
0.26% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.25% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.23% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.22% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.19% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.18% , Dividend International, PID
0.18% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.16% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.15% , Networking, IGN
0.15% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.13% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.13% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.11% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.11% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.07% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.07% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.06% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.03% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.03% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.02% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.02% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.04% , Global 100, IOO
-0.04% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.04% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.04% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.05% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.05% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.06% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.07% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.08% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.08% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.09% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.09% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.09% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.09% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.10% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.11% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.11% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.11% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.12% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.12% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.13% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.13% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.15% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.16% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.16% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.18% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.18% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.18% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.19% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.20% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.21% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.21% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.22% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.22% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.23% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.23% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.24% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.24% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.24% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.24% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.24% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.25% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.30% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.30% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.31% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.33% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.40% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.41% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.41% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.43% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.45% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.46% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.49% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.50% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.50% , France Index, EWQ
-0.50% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.51% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.55% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.55% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.57% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.57% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.59% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.64% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.64% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.68% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.73% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.79% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.83% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.90% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.23% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.57% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1876.77, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1798.30, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
